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MLB
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals
Athletics
Athletics
Athletics
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +41.1% EV
62% Lean
62% Lean
SPREAD
St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 1.5
"Cardinals +1.5 +130: Pinnacle 58.9% fair cover vs mkt 40% (+35 EV), extreme $459k whales confirm"
EV / $100
+35.5
Win Prob
59%
Edge
+8.9%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Athletics None
61%
TOTAL under 10.0
51%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 13.6% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$461262 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong away consensus (72% of whale volume).
Whales: away Polymarket: 61 trades Kalshi: 2 trades Largest: $39285

Player Props Engine

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St. Louis Cardinals

Athletics

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -152 / 127 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -145 / 131 -
Value Line - -157 / 125 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (245) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (135) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 10.0 (-108)
De-Vigged Fair Value 144 / -144 -138 / 138 O/U -101 / 101
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

St. Louis Cardinals

M
Matt Pushard
(RP) 15-day IL — The Cardinals must decide soon whether to return Pushard (knee) to the active roster or expose the Rule 5 pick to waivers, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Sem Robberse
(SP) day-to-day — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Day-To-Day
L
Lars Nootbaar
(LF) 60-day IL — Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said Saturday that Nootbaar (heels) is on track to begin a rehab assignment as soon as the week of May 10, Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
60-Day-IL
V
Victor Santos
(RP) day-to-day — The Red Sox traded Santos (undisclosed) and Nick Robertson to the Cardinals on Friday in exchange for Tyler O'Neill (foot), Alex Speier of The Boston Globe reports.
Day-To-Day
I
Ixan Henderson
(SP) day-to-day — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.
Day-To-Day
R
Ramon Urias
(3B) 10-day IL — The Cardinals placed Urias on the 10-day injured list Tuesday with right elbow lateral epicondylitis.
10-Day-IL
P
Packy Naughton
(RP) day-to-day — Imaging revealed damage to the UCL in Naughton's left elbow Saturday, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
Day-To-Day
Z
Zack Thompson
(RP) day-to-day — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day

Athletics

J
Jacob Wilson
(SS) day-to-day — Wilson was diagnosed with a left shoulder sprain after exiting Sunday's 2-1 loss to the Orioles, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
D
Denzel Clarke
(CF) 10-day IL — Clarke (foot) has begun a running and hitting progression, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Gunnar Hoglund
(SP) 60-day IL — Hoglund (knee/back) was given a cortisone injection in his left hip May 1, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Max Muncy
(3B) 10-day IL — Muncy (hand) has yet to resume baseball activities, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
Game Preview
St. Louis Cardinals @ Athletics
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (245)
Total Over 10.0
Key Injuries
Matt Pushard 15-Day-IL
Sem Robberse Day-To-Day
Jacob Wilson Day-To-Day
Denzel Clarke 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

St. Louis Cardinals @ Athletics

+35.5 EV
per $100 wagered
St. Louis Cardinals 62% Lean
"Cardinals +1.5 +130: Pinnacle 58.9% fair cover vs mkt 40% (+35 EV), extreme $459k whales confirm"
59% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 59%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +8.9%
Line Movement
Current Run Line: Athletics -1.5 -156 | ML: Athletics -156 / Cardinals +129 | Total: 10.0 -110
Movement No significant movement detected
Massive +EV on Cardinals +1.5 per Market Consensus de-vigged fair value (58.9% cover) vs Public Line implied ~40%
FULL ANALYSIS
Pinnacle fair spread value crushes DraftKings pricing: 58.9% Cardinals +1.5 cover prob vs 40% implied, +35 EV fueled by 13.3pt book divergence. Extreme $459k whales (institutional tier) 73% on Cardinals override mixed sharp signals and anchor Bayesian ML home at breakeven 60.9%. No pitchers/weather/pass pace caps total to neutral pass; injuries net +2.3% home but insufficient.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD St. Louis Cardinals 1.5
+35.5 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Athletics None
-0.2 EV 61%
TOTAL under 10.0
+0.1 EV 51%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 61%
Athletics -156
  • Bayesian posterior fuses to 60.9% home win matching market implied, zero edge
SPREAD PICK
○ 62%
St. Louis Cardinals 1.5
  • Pinnacle fair value 58.9% Cardinals cover +1.5 vs DraftKings implied 40% (home -1.5 -156), +39.7% quoted EV
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 51%
UNDER 10.0
  • Pinnacle fair under 51.1% vs implied ~50%, marginal with no pace/weather/pitchers
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Athletics +176: 50.6% posterior vs 36% implied (+14pp, +40 EV); MC 76% under 22.5 (HIGH edge)
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