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MLB
Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies
Rockies
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +38.7% EV
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5
"Sharp 16.9% spread edge + $202k extreme whales on PIT runline despite ML juice"
EV / $100
+4.2
Win Prob
78%
Edge
+28.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Pittsburgh Pirates None
54%
TOTAL under 7.5
57%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 16.9% divergence on spread with strong signal. RLM detected on spread.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$203262 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 215 trades Kalshi: 2 trades Largest: $10506

Player Props Engine

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Colorado Rockies

Pittsburgh Pirates

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -330 / 260 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -312 / 267 -
Value Line - -360 / 270 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (150) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (-132) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (101)
De-Vigged Fair Value -125 / 125 -294 / 294 O/U 108 / -108
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Colorado Rockies

J
Jimmy Herget
(RP) Bereavement — The Rockies moved Herget (personal) to the bereavement/family medical emergency list Saturday.
Bereavement
R
RJ Petit
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Petit (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
McCade Brown
(SP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Brown (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
B
Brayan Castillo
(RP) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Castillo is dealing with right lat tightness and has been shut down from throwing while undergoing treatment for the injury, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
P
Pierson Ohl
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Ohl (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kris Bryant
(DH) 60-day IL — Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Case Williams
(SP) day-to-day — Williams is currently slowed by a stress reaction in his right triceps, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Thomas
(CF) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Thomas hasn't been participating in spring training while he recovers from offseason surgery to address a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jeff Criswell
(RP) 60-day IL — Criswell (elbow) made the second appearance of his rehab assignment with High-A Spokane on Sunday, striking out two over a perfect inning.
60-Day-IL
R
Ryan Feltner
(SP) 15-day IL — Feltner (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday and is likely to begin a rehab assignment shortly, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL

Pittsburgh Pirates

J
Jared Jones
(SP) 60-day IL — Jones (elbow) will make a third start with Double-A Altoona on Tuesday, Danny Demilio of PittsburghBaseballNow.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jake Mangum
(LF) 10-day IL — The Pirates placed Mangum on the 10-day injured list Friday with a left hamstring strain, retroactive to Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
A
Anthony Solometo
(SP) day-to-day — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Chris Devenski
(RP) 15-day IL — The Pirates placed Devenski on the 15-day injured list Thursday due to an illness.
15-Day-IL
O
Oddanier Mosqueda
(RP) day-to-day — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mike Clevinger
(RP) day-to-day — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
D
Dominic Fletcher
(RF) day-to-day — Fletcher (shoulder) had his rehab assignment transferred to Triple-A Charlotte on Thursday and went 2-for-7 with a solo home run and a walk in his first two rehab games with the club.
Day-To-Day
S
Sean Sullivan
(SP) day-to-day — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Sullivan is battling right elbow soreness, Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (150)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Jimmy Herget Bereavement
RJ Petit 60-Day-IL
Jared Jones 60-Day-IL
Jake Mangum 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates

+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Pittsburgh Pirates 64% Sharp Lean
"Sharp 16.9% spread edge + $202k extreme whales on PIT runline despite ML juice"
78% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 78%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +28.0%
Line Movement
Current PIT ML -348 / COL +273, Spread PIT -348, Total 7.5
Movement No significant
Minimal edge on PIT ML after whale/sharp boosts, but juice kills ROI; value shifts to spread
FULL ANALYSIS
PIT -348 ML too juiced (77.7% breakeven) despite 77.7% posterior, but spread offers edge with 16.9% sharp divergence/RLM + extreme $202k whale home volume (44 wallets, 63% conf). Pinnacle fair PIT spread cover 55.5% vs retail. Under 7.5 leans on 52% fair value, equal injuries limit runs. Degraded data caps conf.
SHARP MONEY
Strong 16.9% sharp edge + RLM on PIT spread home; ML moderate away but overruled by spread signal
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5
+4.2 EV 64% 1u
MONEYLINE Pittsburgh Pirates None
+0.8 EV 54%
TOTAL under 7.5
+1.8 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 54%
Pittsburgh Pirates -348
  • Posterior 77.7% but -348 juice > -250 threshold requires 83% breakeven
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5
  • 16.9% sharp edge on home spread with RLM + +38.7% EV vs Pinnacle fair 55.5% cover rate
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 57%
UNDER 7.5
  • Pinnacle fair under 52% in low total spot, historical MLB totals WR 48.7%
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Rockies ML +239 (+9.7% Bayesian edge vs Kalshi 70.5% Pirates) + 72.8% MC under 22.5
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