MLS
St. Louis CITY SC
SC
Colorado Rapids
Rapids
Whale Activity Detected
$125334 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Strong away consensus (92% of whale volume).
Whales: away
Polymarket: 71 trades
Largest: $20235
Ω OMEGA LINE
OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
7.5
Edge: +5.0
Win Prob
42.8%
ML
134 / -134
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGASt. Louis CITY SC
Colorado Rapids
ELO Model Lines
MODELSpread
1.2
Moneyline
COL -118
/
ST. 118
Win Probability
54%
-
46%
ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
St. Louis CITY SC @ Colorado Rapids
+1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
St. Louis CITY SC
55%
Lean
"Over 2.5 +23.9 EV (64.9% posterior vs 50% market), Omega 7.5 total crushes 2.5 line"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
65%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+14.9%
Line Movement
Current
COL -0.5 (-110) / STL +0.5 (-125)
Movement
No significant line movement detected
Altitude: Colorado +25% home edge at 5130ft
+14.9pp edge on over 2.5 per calibrated
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega/Dixon-Coles project total 7.5 vs market 2.5 with 64.9% over posterior; MC 6.7 total confirms. Extreme $124k whales (92%) on STL +235 despite -134 Omega ML away fav, but low model agreement caps game conf. Altitude gives COL edge but models regress it out.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume $124k (92% confidence) on St. Louis CITY SC from 14 profitable wallets
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
55%
St. Louis CITY SC 235
- Posterior away win prob 49.3% vs market 48.8% implied (+0.5pp), massive payout leverage at +235
SPREAD PICK
○
55%
St. Louis CITY SC 0.5
- Omega independent spread at 0.0 vs market COL -0.5 provides 0.5pt value on road dog
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
60%
OVER 2.5
- Bayesian posterior 64.9% over 2.5 vs market 50% (+14.9pp edge), Omega total 7.5 and Dixon-Coles 6.4 lambda
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Over 2.5 +23.9 EV (64.9% posterior vs 50% market), Omega 7.5 total crushes 2.5 line
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