English Premier League
Chelsea
Chelsea
Liverpool
Liverpool
Whale Activity Detected
$1866 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Strong away consensus (100% of whale volume).
Whales: away
Polymarket: 3 trades
Largest: $622
Weather Impact
Liverpool: Partly cloudy | 59°F | Wind 5 mph
⚠️ PRECIPITATION (Partly cloudy): +18% under, +25% fumbles (NFL)
Player Props Engine
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Liverpool
Betting Odds Comparison
| Source | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Consensus | - | -111 / 305 ↑ | - |
| Market Consensus | -0.5 (-110) | - | - |
| Market Consensus | - | - | Over 3.0 (-113) |
| De-Vigged Fair Value | -106 / 106 | -172 / 172 | O/U -107 / 107 |
Line Movement
Open
Current
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Chelsea @ Liverpool
+1.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Liverpool
55%
Lean
"LIV ML -120: Pinnacle fair 63.3% vs retail 54.5% (+8.8% edge) at Anfield"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
56%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+6.0%
Line Movement
Current
LIV -0.5 (-125/-110), O/U 3.5 (-110/-110 assumed), ML LIV -120 / CHE +290
Movement
No significant line movement detected
Anfield home advantage
Cool weather (59F, light wind) neutral for EPL totals
Slight edge on home ML from Market Consensus de-vig fair value (63.3%) vs retail implied (54.5%)
FULL ANALYSIS
Pinnacle de-vig fair value 63.3% LIV win vs DraftKings -120 (54.5% implied) creates +2.7 EV on home ML despite 0% Bayesian edge. Anfield boosts Liverpool's 17-7-11 record edge over Chelsea's road struggles. Totals pass with no posterior and historical 47.4% Lean WR.
SHARP MONEY
+EV analysis shows Pinnacle fair value 63.3% home vs retail 54.5%; minor whale on away ignored due to low volume ($1,866)
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
56%
Liverpool -120
- Bayesian posterior 54.5% but Pinnacle fair value implies 63.3% home win prob vs -120 (54.5% breakeven)
SPREAD PICK
○
55%
Liverpool -0.5
- Pinnacle de-vig fair value 52% home cover vs retail -0.5 at 55.6% implied breakeven
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
52%
UNDER 3.5
- EPL avg goals ~2.9/game; cool 59F weather + partly cloudy under bias despite NFL flag irrelevance
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Liverpool ML -115 value: Pinnacle fair 63.5% vs DraftKings 53.5% implied (+0.2 EV), Anfield edge
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