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MLB
Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins
Marlins
New York Yankees
Yankees
New York Yankees
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +49.3% EV
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
New York Yankees New York Yankees -1.5
"MIA ML +159 (+4.2EV omega 58% vs 66% breakeven) + NYY spread sharp 16.6% divergence despite injury carnage"
EV / $100
+3.8
Win Prob
58%
Edge
+8.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Miami Marlins None
58%
TOTAL over 8.0
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 16.8% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +194.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.0
Win Prob
35.9%
ML
178 / -178

Player Props Engine

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Miami Marlins

New York Yankees

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -206 / 168 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -197 / 175 -
Value Line - -200 / 160 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (220) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (108) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-103)
Fair Value PIN DE-VIG 114 / -114 -182 / 182 O/U 104 / -104
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Miami Marlins

C
Christopher Morel
(LF) 10-day IL — Morel was scratched from the lineup for Friday's game against the Rockies due to a left oblique strain, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kyle Stowers
(LF) 10-day IL — Stowers (hamstring) was able to throw, hit and run during a workout Wednesday, and he had no issues afterward, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
E
Esteury Ruiz
(LF) 10-day IL — The Marlins placed Ruiz (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday, retroactive to Sunday.
10-Day-IL
M
Maximo Acosta
(SS) 10-day IL — The Marlins announced Sunday that Acosta has been diagnosed with a Grade 1 left oblique strain and is expected to be out for 3-4 weeks, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Adam Mazur
(SP) 60-day IL — The Marlins placed Mazur (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
T
Thomas White
(SP) day-to-day — The Marlins reassigned White (oblique) to minor-league camp Tuesday.
Day-To-Day
R
Ronny Henriquez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Marlins placed Henriquez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jesus Tinoco
(RP) out — The Marlins re-signed Tinoco (elbow) to a minor-league contract Jan. 5.
Out

New York Yankees

G
Gerrit Cole
(SP) 15-day IL — Cole (elbow) tossed one simulated inning of live batting practice Wednesday, per MLB.com.
15-Day-IL
C
Carlos Rodon
(SP) 15-day IL — Rodon (elbow/hamstring) hopes to throw off a mound Saturday, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Rafael Montero
(RP) out — Montero continues to have visa issues and hasn't yet arrived at Yankees camp, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
Out
A
Anthony Volpe
(SS) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday on the "Talkin' Yanks" podcast by Jomboy Media that Volpe (shoulder) will take live batting practice Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor signed a minor-league contract with the Angels on Monday.
Day-To-Day
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) is tentatively slated to begin throwing bullpens before the end of March and could face hitters in April or May, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Miami Marlins @ New York Yankees
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (220)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Christopher Morel 10-Day-IL
Kyle Stowers 10-Day-IL
Gerrit Cole 15-Day-IL
Carlos Rodon 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Miami Marlins @ New York Yankees

+3.8 EV
per $100 wagered
New York Yankees 65% Sharp Lean
"MIA ML +159 (+4.2EV omega 58% vs 66% breakeven) + NYY spread sharp 16.6% divergence despite injury carnage"
58% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 58%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +8.0%
Line Movement
Current NYY -194 / MIA +159 | Total 8.0
Movement No movement data available
Miami ML +159 offers +4.2 EV vs market (breakeven 38.7%, our prob 58%>43.7% threshold). NYY ML -194 breakeven 66% = our 58% = negative EV, PASS per juice rules.
Model: 52.8% win rate | n=218 — MLB 115-103 (N=218); vs NYY 6-7, vs MIA 3-8; H2H 0-2 yesterday. Totals losing multiple tiers → cap <55.
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega Poisson projects 12-12 explosion (total edge +16 to 24) vs market 8.0 but Pinnacle fair under 50.9%—model outlier needs caution w/totals losing tiers. Sharp 16.6% spread divergence home +48EV Bovada +220 despite -194 juice anomaly; MIA ML +159 value vs 58% our prob (NYY gutted by Cole/Rodon/Volpe out). Yesterday 0-2 H2H but lean ML profitable; cap units on overconfident calibration.
SHARP MONEY
16.6% sharp edge on spread home (Pinnacle fair 46.5% vs retail -194 implying 66%), +48.9% EV on Bovada spread home +220. Strong divergence signal despite ML weak.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD New York Yankees -1.5
+3.8 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Miami Marlins None
+4.2 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.0
+2.1 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 65%
New York Yankees -177
  • Model prob 58% vs implied 63.9% breakeven (exceeds by 5.9% after calibration); sharp ML edge weak but home talent superior
SPREAD PICK
● 67%
New York Yankees -2.2
  • Sharp 15.5% divergence shows retail spread value (+245 vs fair +132); Yankees missing ace Cole/Rodon but still project 2.5+ run edge
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 7.5
  • Pitching duel projection with Fried (0.00 ERA) and Alcantara (0.00 ERA) facing depleted offenses early season
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Yankees spread +245 = +48.7% EV from 15.5% sharp divergence vs retail; Fried/Alcantara duel caps total at 6.8 projected
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