Home › NBA › Indiana Pacers @ Memphis Grizzlies
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Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers
Pacers
Memphis Grizzlies
Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω DDN SI PICK +5.0% EV
50% Lean
50% Lean
MONEYLINE
Memphis Grizzlies Memphis Grizzlies None
"Grizzlies' 127.2 EWMA offense vs shorthanded 2-6 Pacers drives a 20.7-point model gap and 240.6 implied total — but with zero market data and five Indiana day-to-day tags, cap everything at LEAN tier."
Win Prob
90%
SPREAD Memphis Grizzlies -20.5
62%
TOTAL over 237.5
56%
Full DDN SI Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors over side. 1.9% divergence on total with moderate signal. RLM detected on total.
Sharp: over Boost: +1
Whale Activity Detected
$319132 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 79 trades Kalshi: 263 trades Largest: $50695
DDN SI LINE DDN SI Independent Projection
Spread
-20.5
Total
237.5
Win Prob
89.8%
ML
-884 / 884

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Indiana Pacers

Memphis Grizzlies

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -260 / 215 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -260 / 220 -
Value Line - -245 / 195 -
Sharp Action Best Line -7.5 (-110) - -
Market Consensus -7.5 (-106) ↓ - -
Value Line -6.5 (-110) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 229.0 (-110)
Market Consensus - - Over 229.0 (-109)
Value Line - - Over 230.5 (108)
De-Vigged Fair Value -100 / -100 -243 / 243 O/U -102 / 102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Indiana Pacers

I
Ivica Zubac
(C) out — Zubac (ankle) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game against the Grizzlies.
Out
K
Kelly Oubre Jr.
(G) day-to-day — Oubre (knee) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Grizzlies.
Day-To-Day
O
Obi Toppin
(F) out — Toppin (back) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Grizzlies.
Out
T
T.J. McConnell
(G) out — McConnell (hamstring) is out for Monday's game against the Hawks and remains week-to-week.
Out
J
Johnny Furphy
(G) out — Furphy (knee) is practicing with the G League's Noblesville Boom, per Alex Golden of SI.com.
Out
B
Ben Sheppard
(G) out — Head coach Rick Carlise confirmed Sheppard will miss "months" after undergoing surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee, Tony East of Forbes.com reports.
Out
T
Tyrese Haliburton
(G) out — Haliburton (hamstring) will miss at least the next two weeks of action, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.
Out

Memphis Grizzlies

Q
Quinten Post
(C) day-to-day — Post (ankle) is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game against Indiana.
Day-To-Day
S
Scotty Pippen Jr.
(G) out — Pippen (back) won't play Wednesday against the Pacers.
Out
Game Preview
Indiana Pacers @ Memphis Grizzlies
until tip-off
Current Line
Spread -7.5 (-110)
Total Over 229.0
Key Injuries
Ivica Zubac Out
Kelly Oubre Jr. Day-To-Day
Quinten Post Day-To-Day
Scotty Pippen Jr. Out
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Moneyline: Memphis Grizzlies (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-02T02:13:13.724823 UTC

Model 89.8% home win prob, but fair odds -884 exceed the -250 juiced-favorite cutoff — no ML value at any reasonable book price

Total: over 237.5 (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-03T06:04:59.728919 UTC

Decomposed ratings project 240.6 and NegBin expects 240.7 combined, both above the 237.5 model line; Memphis' 127.2 EWMA pace is the driver

Player Prop: over (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-02T02:13:13.807844 UTC

Frontcourt thinned by Zubac and Toppin (DTD) shifts usage toward Siakam in the paint (model projection, no market line)

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Indiana Pacers @ Memphis Grizzlies

Memphis Grizzlies 50% Lean
"Grizzlies' 127.2 EWMA offense vs shorthanded 2-6 Pacers drives a 20.7-point model gap and 240.6 implied total — but with zero market data and five Indiana day-to-day tags, cap everything at LEAN tier."
90% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 90%
Book Implied 90%
Edge 0.0%
Line Movement
Current Memphis -20.5 / Total 237.5 (omega_model)
Movement No market data — OMEGA model-implied lines only
FULL ANALYSIS
Memphis is 6-1 and humming at 127.2 EWMA while Indiana limps in at 2-6 with five of its top-eight listed day-to-day — the Poisson/NegBin models converge on a 20-point class gap (129-108, 240ish total). But with no book to price the edge against, these are model projections, not market lines; the -20.5 spread is the model's ceiling case and expect the market to open meaningfully closer if key Pacers play, so treat this as display-only and keep unit sizing to lean tier.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Memphis Grizzlies None
50%
SPREAD Memphis Grizzlies -20.5
62% 0.5u
TOTAL over 237.5
56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 50%
Memphis Grizzlies None
  • Model 89.8% home win prob, but fair odds -884 exceed the -250 juiced-favorite cutoff — no ML value at any reasonable book price
SPREAD PICK
○ 62%
Memphis Grizzlies -20.5
  • scoring model+team strength projects a 20.7-point gap (129.1-108.4) with Memphis 6-1 and firing 127.2 EWMA vs Indiana 107.7 on 1-4 road form
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 56%
OVER 237.5
  • Decomposed ratings project 240.6 and NegBin expects 240.7 combined, both above the 237.5 model line; Memphis' 127.2 EWMA pace is the driver
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
No market lines on Pacers-Grizzlies: model says MEM -2.5 / 54.6% ML with Zubac and McConnell out, only Haliburton 9.5+ assists carries real confidence (63)
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