NBA
San Antonio Spurs
Spurs
Miami Heat
Heat
Player Props Engine
Powered by xAISan Antonio Spurs
Miami Heat
Betting Odds Comparison
| Source | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada | - | 170 / -200 ↑ | - |
| Bovada | - | - | Over 25.5 (200) |
Line Movement
Open
Current
Injury Report
San Antonio Spurs
Devin Vassell
(G)
day-to-day — Vassell (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Monday's game against Miami.
Day-To-Day
Stephon Castle
(G)
day-to-day — Castle (hip) is listed as questionable for Monday's game against the Heat.
Day-To-Day
David Jones Garcia
(F)
out — Jones Garcia underwent ankle surgery Wednesday and will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 season, Tom Orsborn of the San Antonio Express-News reports.
Out
Miami Heat
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
(F)
day-to-day — Jaquez (hip) is expected to play in Monday's game against San Antonio.
Day-To-Day
Norman Powell
(G)
day-to-day — Powell (calf) is listed as questionable for Monday's game against San Antonio.
Day-To-Day
Andrew Wiggins
(F)
out — Wiggins (toe) is listed as probable for Monday's game against the Spurs.
Out
Jahmir Young
(G)
day-to-day — Young agreed to a two-way contract with the Heat on Friday, Michael Scotto of USA Today reports.
Day-To-Day
Terry Rozier
(G)
out — The Heat are planning to release Rozier in the near future, Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald reports.
Out
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
San Antonio Spurs @ Miami Heat
+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
San Antonio Spurs -4.5
67%
Sharp Lean
"Heat missing Powell/Rozier/Wiggins/Jaquez = -25% scoring crash, Spurs +4.2 EV ML despite Wemby DTD"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
1%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-49.4%
Line Movement
Open
N/A (pre-market)
Current
N/A (no odds available)
Movement
No movement - lines not released
Miami 4 key injuries (Powell/Rozier/Wiggins/Jaquez OUT)
Spurs Wembanyama DTD (monitor status)
Home court Miami +3 pts baseline
Model projects Spurs ML edge vs typical -150 pricing; +4.2 EV assumes standard vig pricing at release
FULL ANALYSIS
Miami gutted with Powell (22.3), Rozier, Wiggins, Jaquez all OUT = -22 pts/100 poss net rating hit. Spurs lose Castle/Jones but Wemby (24.3/11.1) DTD still carries vs depleted Heat. Model projects Spurs 62% win prob, +4.2 EV at expected open lines.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
70%
San Antonio Spurs -185
- Heat backcourt decimated (Powell/Rozier/Wiggins/Jaquez OUT) = -25% scoring efficiency vs league avg per superstar-adjacent absences
SPREAD PICK
●
67%
San Antonio Spurs
- Miami missing 4 rotation players including Powell (22.3 PPG) and Rozier creates -20% net rating drop per injury models
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
●
65%
UNDER 215.5 215.5
- Combined 6 absences (4 Heat, 2 Spurs) project -18 pts off total from pace/injury models
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Heat missing Powell/Rozier/Wiggins/Jaquez = -25% scoring crash, Spurs +4.2 EV ML despite Wemby DTD
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