Home › MLS › FC Dallas @ Red Bull New York
MLS
FC Dallas
FC Dallas
Dallas
Red Bull New York
York
Red Bull New York
Full Game Analysis
MLS
Ω OMEGA PICK
54% Lean
54% Lean
SPREAD
FC Dallas FC Dallas 0.5
"FC Dallas ML +220 (54% model vs 31% breakeven, +73 EV) + over 3.5 (64% posterior, Omega 7.5 total edge +4pts)"
EV / $100
-5.5
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+4.3%
MONEYLINE FC Dallas None
54%
TOTAL over 3.5
64%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$402360 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (77% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 166 trades Largest: $14310
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
7.5
Edge: +4.0
Win Prob
40.6%
ML
146 / -146

Player Props Engine

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FC Dallas

Red Bull New York

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
-1.9
Moneyline
RED 132 / FC -132
Win Probability
43% - 57%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
FC Dallas @ Red Bull New York
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

FC Dallas @ Red Bull New York

+-5.5 EV
per $100 wagered
FC Dallas 54% Lean
"FC Dallas ML +220 (54% model vs 31% breakeven, +73 EV) + over 3.5 (64% posterior, Omega 7.5 total edge +4pts)"
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +4.3%
Line Movement
Current RBNY -0.5 (+100) / FC Dallas +0.5 (-135) | Total 3.5 | ML RBNY -105 / FC Dallas +220
Movement No significant line movement detected
away_travel_2000mi
Strong +EV on FC Dallas ML underdog (+220 pays 220 on 100 risk) with 54.3% posterior vs 31% breakeven; over 3.5 +21.6 EV
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega projects even ML (-146/-146) and 7.5 total vs market RBNY -0.5/3.5; Bayesian fuses to 45.7% home win (edge to Dallas ML +220) and 63.7% over 3.5. MC 3.3-3.6 score, Dixon-Coles 6.4 goals each despite Dallas cross-country travel (-15%). Extreme whales on home reduce ML conf, but EV dominates; cool 47F minimal impact vs quant edge.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume ($391k, 20 wallets, 78% on home) contradicts model away lean
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD FC Dallas 0.5
-5.5 EV 54%
MONEYLINE FC Dallas None
+73.8 EV 54% 1.0u
TOTAL over 3.5
+21.6 EV 64% 1.0u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 54%
FC Dallas 220
  • Bayesian posterior 54.3% away win (market 51.2% edge +3pp), huge value at +220 (breakeven 31%)
SPREAD PICK
○ 54%
FC Dallas 0.5
  • Omega even spread (0.0) vs market RBNY -0.5, posterior implies 54.3% Dallas +0.5 cover (away win/draw)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 64%
OVER 3.5
  • Posterior 63.7% over 3.5 (market 50%, +13.7pp edge); Omega 7.5 total/MC 6.9/expected 3.8-3.8
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
FC Dallas ML +220 (54% model vs 31% breakeven, +73 EV) + over 3.5 (64% posterior, Omega 7.5 total edge +4pts)
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