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MLB
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.6% EV
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 1.5
"STL ML +109 (+10.1 EV): MC 52.7% win prob vs 47.8% breakeven + extreme whales $107k despite sharp home spread divergence"
EV / $100
+4.2
Win Prob
47%
Edge
-2.7%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE St. Louis Cardinals None
62%
TOTAL over 8.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.2% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$107049 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong away consensus (90% of whale volume).
Whales: away Polymarket: 115 trades Kalshi: 6 trades Largest: $4950
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +131.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
42.5%
ML
135 / -135

Player Props Engine

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St. Louis Cardinals

Pittsburgh Pirates

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -136 / 114 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -131 / 119 -
Value Line - -134 / 107 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (305) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (157) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-100)
De-Vigged Fair Value 169 / -169 -125 / 125 O/U 107 / -107
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

St. Louis Cardinals

H
Hunter Dobbins
(SP) 15-day IL — Dobbins (knee) is expected to start on the mound for Cardinals on Thursday in Pittsburgh, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
15-Day-IL
P
Pedro Pages
(C) day-to-day — Pages (hamstring) is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Mariners.
Day-To-Day
M
Matt Pushard
(RP) 15-day IL — Pushard (knee) will head to Triple-A Memphis on Tuesday to begin a rehab assignment, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
15-Day-IL
P
Packy Naughton
(RP) day-to-day — Imaging revealed damage to the UCL in Naughton's left elbow Saturday, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
Day-To-Day
I
Ixan Henderson
(SP) day-to-day — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.
Day-To-Day
L
Lars Nootbaar
(LF) 60-day IL — Cardinals president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom said Monday that Nootbaar (heels) will be evaluated this week for potential placement on the 60-day injured list, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
60-Day-IL
V
Victor Santos
(RP) day-to-day — Santos (elbow) has compiled a 3.97 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 26:7 K:BB across 34 innings over his first nine outings (seven starts) in the Dominican Winter League.
Day-To-Day
S
Sem Robberse
(SP) day-to-day — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Day-To-Day
Z
Zack Thompson
(RP) day-to-day — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day

Pittsburgh Pirates

B
Braxton Ashcraft
(SP) Bereavement — The Pirates placed Ashcraft (personal) on the bereavement/family medical emergency list Saturday.
Bereavement
J
Jared Triolo
(SS) 10-day IL — Triolo (knee) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Bradenton on Friday, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
10-Day-IL
S
Sean Sullivan
(SP) day-to-day — Sullivan owns a 5.87 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and 11:5 K:BB in 7.2 innings over his three appearances since being promoted to Triple-A Indianapolis on June 10.
Day-To-Day
D
Dominic Fletcher
(RF) day-to-day — The Pirates reassigned Fletcher to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day
A
Anthony Solometo
(SP) day-to-day — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mike Clevinger
(RP) day-to-day — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Jones
(SP) 60-day IL — Jones (elbow) threw a live batting practice session Wednesday, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
O
Oddanier Mosqueda
(RP) day-to-day — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (305)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Hunter Dobbins 15-Day-IL
Pedro Pages Day-To-Day
Braxton Ashcraft Bereavement
Jared Triolo 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates

+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
St. Louis Cardinals 58% Lean
"STL ML +109 (+10.1 EV): MC 52.7% win prob vs 47.8% breakeven + extreme whales $107k despite sharp home spread divergence"
47% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 47%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -2.7%
Line Movement
Current PIT ML -131 / STL +109 | Run Line PIT -1.5 -131 | Total 8.5
Movement No significant movement
+10.1 EV on STL ML +109 (breakeven 47.8%, our 52.7% STL win prob exceeds by 4.9%)
FULL ANALYSIS
MC sims project 10-9.8 total (19.8 pts) vs 8.5 market line for +EV over, while omega even spread 0.0 and 47.3% PIT win prob create STL +1.5/ ML value at current prices. Extreme $107k whale volume (91% conf) on STL aligns with MC edge over Bayesian 58% PIT; sharps split with home spread lean but VERY_LOW model agreement caps conviction. Equal -8.7% injuries both sides, no pitchers/weather degrade signals further.
SHARP MONEY
14.2% sharp edge on PIT spread vs retail, strong signal despite ML weak on away
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD St. Louis Cardinals 1.5
+4.2 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE St. Louis Cardinals None
+10.1 EV 62% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.5
+3.8 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 62%
St. Louis Cardinals 109
  • MC PIT win 47.3% (STL 52.7%) vs market implied 56.7%, extreme whale volume $107k on STL (91% conf)
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
St. Louis Cardinals 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 and MC home cover 47.3% vs market PIT -1.5, value on STL +1.5
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 8.5
  • MC projected 19.8 total (10.0-9.8) vs market 8.5, omega total 22.5 implies massive over edge
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Pirates +146 undervalued (Bayesian 59% vs 41% omega implied, +16% edge) despite strong whale steam on Cards
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