Home › MLB › Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Mets
MLB
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbac
New York Mets
Mets
New York Mets
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
New York Mets New York Mets -136
"Mets spread +54.9% EV vs Pinnacle fair (37% prob) + 15% sharp divergence despite even MC matchup"
EV / $100
+5.4
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-3.7%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Arizona Diamondbacks None
55%
TOTAL over 7.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +136.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.5
Win Prob
35.0%
ML
186 / -186

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Arizona Diamondbacks

New York Mets

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Market Consensus - -136 / 123 ↑ -
Market Consensus -1.5 (156) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-106)
De-Vigged Fair Value 168 / -168 -130 / 130 O/U 101 / -101
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Arizona Diamondbacks

J
Jordan Lawlar
(SS) 60-day IL — The Diamondbacks transferred Lawlar (wrist) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Carlos Santana
(1B) 10-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Santana on the 10-day injured list Tuesday with a right adductor strain.
10-Day-IL
M
Merrill Kelly
(SP) 15-day IL — Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo announced Sunday that Kelly (back) will make one more rehab start before joining the big-league rotation, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.
15-Day-IL
A
A.J. Puk
(RP) 60-day IL — Puk (elbow) has thrown multiple bullpen sessions since late March, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
L
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
(LF) 10-day IL — Gurriel (knee) continues to get at-bats and lightly run out of the batter's box in simulated games at Arizona's training camp, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kyle Amendt
(RP) day-to-day — Amendt underwent shoulder surgery Tuesday, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.
Day-To-Day
P
Pavin Smith
(1B) 10-day IL — Smith is not in the lineup for Monday's contest versus the Tigers.
10-Day-IL
B
Blake Walston
(SP) 60-day IL — Arizona placed Walston (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Cristian Mena
(RP) 60-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Mena (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tyler Locklear
(1B) 10-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Locklear (elbow) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
J
Justin Martinez
(RP) 60-day IL — Martinez (elbow) is throwing from up to 120 feet on flat ground, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Corbin Burnes
(SP) 60-day IL — Burnes (elbow) threw a bullpen session Monday, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Andrew Saalfrank
(RP) 60-day IL — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Derek Law
(RP) out — Law (forearm) signed a minor-league contract with the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, Aaron Hughes of SI.com reports.
Out
T
Tommy Henry
(RP) out — The Diamondbacks re-signed Henry (elbow) to a minor-league contract Monday.
Out

New York Mets

J
Juan Soto
(RF) 10-day IL — The Mets placed Soto (calf) on the 10-day injured list Monday.
10-Day-IL
M
Mike Tauchman
(RF) out — Tauchman underwent surgery Thursday to repair the torn meniscus in his left knee, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
Out
A
A.J. Minter
(RP) 15-day IL — The Mets placed Minter (lat) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
N
Nate Lavender
(RP) day-to-day — Lavender (elbow) cleared outright waivers Wednesday and was returned to the Mets.
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Hagenman
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
B
Brandon Waddell
(RP) day-to-day — The Mets outrighted Waddell to Triple-A Syracuse on Friday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Robert Stock
(RP) out — Stock experienced shoulder discomfort while playing with Team Israel in the World Baseball Classic and will undergo testing, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.
Out
G
Grae Kessinger
(3B) out — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Kessinger will get imaging done after suffering a left knee injury in Friday's Grapefruit League game against the Cardinals, SNY Mets reports.
Out
D
Dedniel Nunez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets transferred Nunez (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tylor Megill
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets and Megill (elbow) avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $2.5 million contract Thursday, Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reed Garrett
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Mets
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (156)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Jordan Lawlar 60-Day-IL
Carlos Santana 10-Day-IL
Juan Soto 10-Day-IL
Mike Tauchman Out
Analysis starts at first pitch

Get Daily Picks

AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Mets

+5.4 EV
per $100 wagered
New York Mets 64% Sharp Lean
"Mets spread +54.9% EV vs Pinnacle fair (37% prob) + 15% sharp divergence despite even MC matchup"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -3.7%
Line Movement
Current NYM -136 / ARI +113 | Total 7.5
Movement No movement data
No positive EV on ML; massive +54.9% EV on Mets spread +315 at Bovada per +EV analysis
Model: 52.3% win rate | n=352 — MLB 184-168 (52.3% N=352); vs Mets 9-13, vs ARI 14-12; Lean spreads 59.7% profitable
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega spread 0.0 vs market -136 but +EV analysis shows 54.9% EV on Mets spread +315 at Bovada (Pinnacle fair 37% prob); MC even matchup 46% each but sharp 15% spread divergence to home. Total edge massive (24.0 model vs 7.5 market) but totals losing across tiers. Injuries heavy both sides (Soto, Gurriel IL) but Mets get sharp action.
SHARP MONEY
15.0% sharp edge on spread favoring home (Pinnacle fair 37.3% vs retail 24.1%) = strong signal (+2 confidence boost)
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD New York Mets -136
+5.4 EV 64% 1u
MONEYLINE Arizona Diamondbacks None
+1.2 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL over 7.5
+2.1 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 60%
New York Mets -130
  • 57% model win prob exceeds -130 breakeven of 56.5%
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
New York Mets -1.5
  • Model projects Mets 4.6-3.4 win expectation giving 1.2 run home edge
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 8.0
  • Model projects 8.0 combined runs; MLB early season unders hit 54% historically
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Mets -130 model edge (57% win prob) with Dbacks missing Kelly/Gurriel; Carroll over hits +2.9 EV
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700