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Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards
Wizards
Golden State Warriors
Warriors
Golden State Warriors
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK
68% Strong
68% Strong
SPREAD
Washington Wizards Washington Wizards +13.5
"Wizards +13.5 (+3.8EV): GSW missing Curry/Butler/Porzingis = -28pts impact, true spread -9.5; Under 232.5 (+5.1EV) projects 218pts"
EV / $100
+3.8
Win Prob
82%
Edge
+32.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Golden State Warriors -1000
62%
TOTAL Under 232.5 232.5
71%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Washington Wizards

Golden State Warriors

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Pinnacle - -980 / 665 ↑ -
Pinnacle -14.0 (-104) - -
Pinnacle - - Over 231.5 (-112)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Washington Wizards

T
Tristan Vukcevic
(F) day-to-day — Vukcevic (back) is questionable to play Friday against the Warriors.
Day-To-Day
T
Tre Johnson
(G) out — Johnson (foot) is questionable for Friday's game against the Warriors.
Out
B
Bilal Coulibaly
(G) day-to-day — Coulibaly (heel) is questionable for Friday's matchup with the Warriors.
Day-To-Day
T
Trae Young
(G) out — Young (quadriceps) is out for Friday's game against Golden State.
Out
A
Alex Sarr
(C) day-to-day — Sarr (toe) is questionable for Friday's game versus the Warriors.
Day-To-Day
K
Kyshawn George
(F) out — The Wizards said Wednesday that George (elbow) will be re-evaluated in one week, at which point an update for his rest-of-season status will be provided, Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints.com reports.
Out
A
Anthony Davis
(F) out — Davis (finger) will continue to remain sidelined through the end of March, the Wizards announced Friday.
Out
D
D'Angelo Russell
(G) out — Russell (not injury related) has been ruled out for Tuesday's game against the Magic.
Out
C
Cam Whitmore
(F) out — Whitmore has begun the recovery process for a diagnosed venous condition and he will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 season.
Out

Golden State Warriors

S
Seth Curry
(G) out — Curry (thigh) is out for Friday's game against Washington.
Out
Q
Quinten Post
(C) out — Post (foot) has been ruled out for Friday's game against the Wizards.
Out
A
Al Horford
(C) out — Horford (calf) is out for Friday's game against the Wizards.
Out
S
Stephen Curry
(G) out — The Warriors announced Wednesday that Curry (knee) has yet to participate in a scrimmage, and another update is expected to come later this week, Anthony Slater of ESPN.com reports.
Out
M
Moses Moody
(G) out — Moody has been diagnosed with a torn patellar tendon in his left knee, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.
Out
J
Jimmy Butler III
(F) out — Butler underwent successful surgery Monday to repair a torn right anterior cruciate ligament.
Out
Game Preview
Washington Wizards @ Golden State Warriors
until tip-off
Current Line
Spread -14.0 (-104)
Total Over 231.5
Key Injuries
Tristan Vukcevic Day-To-Day
Tre Johnson Out
Seth Curry Out
Quinten Post Out
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Washington Wizards @ Golden State Warriors

+3.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Washington Wizards 68% Strong
"Wizards +13.5 (+3.8EV): GSW missing Curry/Butler/Porzingis = -28pts impact, true spread -9.5; Under 232.5 (+5.1EV) projects 218pts"
82% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 82%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +32.0%
Line Movement
Current GS -13.5 (Home -118 / Away -102) | Total 232.5 | ML Home -1000 / Away +650
Movement No movement data available
No ML edge; spread offers +EV on Wizards at -102 with model projecting true spread -9.5
Model: 67.7% win rate | n=31 — No specific spread/total history; using base 67.7% calibration
FULL ANALYSIS
GSW crippled without Curry/Butler/Porzingis/Horford/Moody (-35pts usage); Wizards counter with Davis/Sarr core vs thin Warriors frontcourt. Model cuts true spread to -9.5 (Wizards +EV cover) and totals 218pts (under edge). Depleted lineups = Podziemski/Sarr overs on volume spikes.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Washington Wizards +13.5
+3.8 EV 68% 1u
MONEYLINE Golden State Warriors -1000
-4.2 EV 62%
TOTAL Under 232.5 232.5
+5.1 EV 71% 1.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 72%
Golden State Warriors -350
  • Warriors depth (Butler/Podziemski/Moody/Porzingis) survives Curry out while Wizards lose 40+pts usage from Sarr(16.5)/Young/Davis out
SPREAD PICK
● 69%
Golden State Warriors
  • Model projects 115-106 (9pt diff) as Warriors bench mob (Podziemski 12.9pts) exploits Wizards missing top scorers/rim protection
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 66%
UNDER 212.5 212.5
  • Double superstar depletion (Curry/Sarr/Young/Davis out) drops pace/efficiency; model totals 221 but adjusts -12pts for injuries
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Warriors -8.5 (+3.8EV): Podziemski/Green feast on Wizards sans Sarr/Young/Davis (40+pts usage gone)
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