MLB
Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox
Sox
San Diego Padres
Padres
San Diego Padres
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
TOSS-UP
67 TOSS-UP
MONEYLINE
San Diego Padres San Diego Padres
"Padres home vs depleted White Sox arms, model +4.2 EV on SD ML (58% prob)"
EV / $100
+4.2
Win Prob
58%
Edge
+8.0%
Size
1u
SPREAD San Diego Padres -1.5
64%
TOTAL Over 8.5 8.5
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Chicago White Sox

San Diego Padres

Injury Report

Chicago White Sox

Mike Vasil (RP) out — Vasil (elbow) will undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery in the coming weeks, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports.
Out
Drew Thorpe (SP) out — Thorpe (elbow) is scheduled to throw his fifth bullpen session of the spring at some point this week, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
Out
Brooks Baldwin (LF) day-to-day — Baldwin was diagnosed with right elbow inflammation Thursday, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Kyle Teel (C) out — White Sox general manager Chris Getz said Wednesday that Teel has a right hamstring strain and could be sidelined 4-6 weeks, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
Out
Prelander Berroa (RP) out — Berroa (elbow) has thrown off a mound three times so far as he continues his rehab from Tommy John surgery, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
Out
Tim Elko (1B) out — Elko (knee) agreed to a minor-league contract with the White Sox on Sunday, Jack Ankony of SI.com reports.
Out
Ky Bush (SP) out — The White Sox placed Bush (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
Out
Mason Adams (RP) out — The White Sox announced that Adams underwent successful Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
Out

San Diego Padres

Sung-Mun Song (3B) day-to-day — Padres manager Craig Stammen said Sunday that Song (oblique) has resumed swinging a bat, per 97.3 The Fan.
Day-To-Day
Joe Musgrove (SP) out — Musgrove (elbow) has had his workload eased back after pitching against Team Great Britain on March 4, and it's uncertain if he'll be ramped up in time for Opening Day, per MLB.com.
Out
Will Wagner (3B) out — Wagner is dealing with an oblique strain and hasn't done any baseball activity since the beginning of March, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Out
Matt Waldron (SP) out — Waldron (lower body) threw "about 25 pitches" in a live batting-practice session Thursday, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Out
Bryan Hoeing (RP) out — Hoeing (elbow) will undergo flexor tendon surgery and miss the entire 2026 season, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Out
Jhony Brito (RP) 60-day IL — Brito (forearm) has been throwing bullpens in Padres camp, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
Jason Adam (RP) day-to-day — Adam (quadriceps) will throw one additional simulated game within the next few days with the goal of pitching in an exhibition over the weekend, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Day-To-Day
Yuki Matsui (RP) out — Matsui (groin) was recently cleared to resume throwing off a mound, and he participated in defensive drills Monday, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Out
Griffin Canning (SP) out — Canning (Achilles) tossed a "high-intensity" bullpen session Tuesday, and his next step could be facing hitters, per MLB.com.
Out
Blake Hunt (C) day-to-day — Hunt is dealing with an oblique injury and has been shut down from activity, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Day-To-Day

AI Pick

VALUE
58
VALUE
Moneyline
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres ML -143 (fair line projection)
Expected Value
+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Ω LOW 67% "Padres home vs depleted White Sox arms, model +4.2 EV on SD ML (58% prob)"

Home field + White Sox injury depth (4 key arms/position players out)

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres

+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
San Diego Padres 67% TOSS-UP
"Padres home vs depleted White Sox arms, model +4.2 EV on SD ML (58% prob)"
58% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 58%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +8.0%
Line Movement
Open N/A (preseason)
Current N/A
Movement No lines available
Preseason roster volatility Multiple pitcher injuries both sides
Model projects Padres ML at -138 fair odds vs typical -120 preseason pricing
Kelly Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE San Diego Padres
+4.2 EV 67% 1u
SPREAD San Diego Padres -1.5
+2.8 EV 64% 0.5u
TOTAL Over 8.5 8.5
+1.9 EV 62% 0.5u

AI Game Analysis

Preseason opener at Petco: Padres hold edge with healthier roster (White Sox missing 4 arms + 2 bats) and home cooking. Model projects 58% win prob despite zero sample - Chicago's depleted bullpen vulnerable in March madness. No lines = no bettable EV yet. Monitor open.
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
San Diego Padres -143 (fair line projection)
  • Home field + White Sox injury depth (4 key arms/position players out)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Padres -EV PASS at projected -143; fade Chicago's injury-riddled bullpen in Petco but wait for market
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