Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies

MLB

Miami Marlins

Marlins

0 - 7

Final

Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies

Full Game Analysis

MLB

Ω OMEGA PICK ALIGNED

54% Lean

SPREAD

Miami Marlins 1.5

"Over 8.0 at +24.5 EV: wind + Gusto struggles outweigh Wheeler, model sees 65% over probability"

EV / $100

+2.9

Win Prob

65%

Edge

+15.2%

MONEYLINE Miami Marlins None

44%

TOTAL over 8.0

60%

Full OMEGA Breakdown

Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection

Spread

0.0

Edge: +1.5

Total

22.5

Edge: +14.5

Win Prob

35.0%

186 / -186

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Miami Marlins

Philadelphia Phillies

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Betting Odds Comparison

Source	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Sharp Action Best Line	-	-199 / 164 ↑	-
Market Consensus	-	-187 / 170	-
Value Line	-	-182 / 145	-
Sharp Action Best Line	-3.0 (210)	-	-
Market Consensus	-1.5 (109) ↓	-	-
Market Consensus	-	-	Over 8.0 (-104)
De-Vigged Fair Value	115 / -115	-179 / 179	O/U 102 / -102

Line Movement

Open Current

Injury Report

Miami Marlins

Janson Junk

(SP) 15-day IL — Junk (shin) was able to throw a light bullpen session earlier this week and could throw a higher-intensity side session in the coming days, MLB.com reports.

15-Day-IL

Griffin Conine

(LF) 60-day IL — Conine (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Jacksonville on Tuesday, Stephen Strom of Marlins Radio Network reports.

60-Day-IL

Eury Perez

(SP) 15-day IL — Perez (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Jacksonville on Thursday, Stephen Strom of Marlins Radio Network reports.

15-Day-IL

Thomas White

(SP) day-to-day — White was diagnosed with a left shoulder capsular sprain Friday and is expected to miss the rest of the season, Isaac Azout of FishOnFirst.com reports.

Day-To-Day

Josh Ekness

(RP) 15-day IL — Marlins manager Clayton McCullough said Monday that Ekness is expected to miss approximately six weeks due to a right calf strain, Kyle Sielaff of Marlins.tv reports.

15-Day-IL

Andrew Nardi

(RP) 60-day IL — The Marlins transferred Nardi (ribcage) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.

60-Day-IL

Robby Snelling

(SP) 60-day IL — Snelling underwent internal brace surgery Friday to repair a torn UCL in his left elbow.

60-Day-IL

Ronny Henriquez

(RP) 60-day IL — The Marlins placed Henriquez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.

60-Day-IL

Jesus Tinoco

(RP) out — The Marlins re-signed Tinoco (elbow) to a minor-league contract Jan. 5.

Out

Adam Mazur

(SP) 60-day IL — The Marlins placed Mazur (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.

60-Day-IL

Philadelphia Phillies

Trea Turner

(SS) day-to-day — Turner (wrist) will start at shortstop and bat leadoff in Wednesday's game against the Marlins.

Day-To-Day

Adolis Garcia

(RF) 60-day IL — Garcia will undergo season-ending surgery Wednesday to repair a torn right lat.

60-Day-IL

Liover Peguero

(SS) day-to-day — The Phillies reassigned Peguero to minor-league camp Sunday.

Day-To-Day

Andrew Bechtold

(3B) day-to-day — no

Day-To-Day

Brad Keller

(RP) 15-day IL — Keller picked up the save Wednesday against the Athletics, allowing no runs on one hit and two walks in the ninth inning. He struck out one.

15-Day-IL

Johan Rojas

(CF) out — Rojas (suspension) will miss the remainder of the season after suffering a right elbow UCL tear that will require an internal brace procedure.

Out

Kyle Backhus

(RP) 15-day IL — Backhus (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Tuesday.

15-Day-IL

Andrew Walling

(RP) day-to-day

Day-To-Day

Carson DeMartini

(SS) day-to-day

Day-To-Day

Daniel Robert

(RP) day-to-day — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.

Day-To-Day

Mark Kolozsvary

(C) day-to-day — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.

Day-To-Day

Box Score

FINAL

Marlins

Phillies

Miami Marlins 1.5

54% conf

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OMEGA ANALYSIS

Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies

+2.9 EV

per $100 wagered

Miami Marlins 54% Lean

"Over 8.0 at +24.5 EV: wind + Gusto struggles outweigh Wheeler, model sees 65% over probability"

EV Breakdown

Model Prob 65%

Book Implied 50%

Edge +15.2%

Line Movement

Open Not available

Current Spread: -1.5, Total: 8.0, ML: -198/+162

Movement No significant movement detected

Wind 13 mph may aid scoring Wheeler elite vs Gusto poor Marlins poor away record

Model sees significant over value despite strong pitchers; wind and Gusto's struggles could lead to runs.

FULL ANALYSIS

Bayesian fusion shows strong over value (+15.2pp edge) despite Wheeler's dominance. Wind at 13 mph and Gusto's 6.00 ERA create scoring potential. Sharp money on home spread contradicts model's slight away lean, but total market is the clearest edge. Player props on Wheeler Ks and Schwarber HR align with the over thesis.

SHARP MONEY

Sharp edge 15.6% on spread favoring home, strong signal.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE

SPREAD Miami Marlins 1.5

+2.9 EV 54%

MONEYLINE Miami Marlins None

+15.8 EV 44%

TOTAL over 8.0

+24.5 EV 60% 0.5u

MONEYLINE PICK

○ 44%

Miami Marlins 162

Model shows +10.6pp edge on away ML, positive EV

SPREAD PICK

○ 54%

Miami Marlins 1.5

Model sees away cover probability 53.9% vs market 50%, slight edge

TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)

○ 60%

OVER 8.0

Bayesian posterior 65.2% over, +15.2pp edge; wind 13 mph aids scoring

About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary

Miami +177 ML has +5.3% EV — market overpricing Phillies by 11.6pp vs Bayesian posterior, with sharp money + whale volume all confirming the fade.

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