Home › NHL › Winnipeg Jets @ Montreal Canadiens
NHL
Winnipeg Jets
Winnipeg Jets
Jets
Montreal Canadiens
Canadiens
Montreal Canadiens
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω DDN SI PICK +3.0% EV
52% Lean
52% Lean
MONEYLINE
Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets None
Win Prob
66%
SPREAD Winnipeg Jets 1.5
52%
TOTAL over 5.5
51%
Full DDN SI Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 2.0% divergence on ML with moderate signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$255980 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 42 trades Largest: $59400

Player Props Engine

Powered by DDN SI

Winnipeg Jets

Montreal Canadiens

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -195 / 165 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -187 / 167 -
Value Line - -215 / 175 -
Sharp Action Best Line -1.5 (133) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (137) ↓ - -
Value Line -1.5 (120) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 6.0 (-103)
Market Consensus - - Over 6.0 (-102)
Value Line - - Over 6.5 (110)
De-Vigged Fair Value 146 / -146 -178 / 178 O/U 104 / -104
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Winnipeg Jets

D
Dawson Mercer
(C) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
V
Vladislav Namestnikov
(C) Injured Reserve — ir
Injured Reserve
N
Nick Bjugstad
(C) Injured Reserve — Bjugstad (pectoral), Dawson Mercer, Nico Daws, Alexander Command and a pair of draft picks were traded to the Jets from the Devils on Friday in exchange for Connor Hellebuyck.
Injured Reserve
J
Josh Morrissey
(D) Injured Reserve — Morrissey (wrist) was placed on injured reserve Monday.
Injured Reserve
G
Garrett Brown
(C) Injured Reserve — ir-nr
Injured Reserve

Montreal Canadiens

K
Kirby Dach
(C) day-to-day — Dach (illness) won't participate in Monday's practice.
Day-To-Day
M
Mike Matheson
(D) out — Matheson (lower body) is expected to miss two weeks, Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports reports Saturday.
Out
S
Sam Montembeault
(G) Injured Reserve — Montembeault (lower body) is considered day-to-day, according to Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports on Saturday.
Injured Reserve
N
Nick Suzuki
(C) out — out
Out
I
Ivan Demidov
(RW) Injured Reserve — Demidov (lower body) was placed on injured reserve by the Canadiens on Tuesday, per the NHL media site.
Injured Reserve
B
Bryce Pickford
(D) Injured Reserve — ir-nr
Injured Reserve
L
Lucas Condotta
(LW) Injured Reserve — ir-nr
Injured Reserve
Game Preview
Winnipeg Jets @ Montreal Canadiens
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (133)
Total Over 6.0
Key Injuries
Dawson Mercer Day-To-Day
Vladislav Namestnikov Injured Reserve
Kirby Dach Day-To-Day
Mike Matheson Out
Analysis starts at puck drop

Get Daily Picks

DDN SI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Total: over 5.5 (-127) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-02T20:36:20.775347 UTC

No edge: over posterior 55.5% equals marketimplied 55.9% at -127 minus vig, netting -0.8/100; totals are our weakest market historically (48.7% WR) and NHL is paused

Moneyline: Winnipeg Jets (+160) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-01T19:00:20.675180 UTC

No edge: away posterior 34.2% equals market, and +160 implied 38.5% is actually worse than fair value; only sharp/whale divergence (2.0% Market Consensus split, $255,980 whale volume on away) keeps this on the radar

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Winnipeg Jets @ Montreal Canadiens

Winnipeg Jets 52% Lean
DDN SI sees no actionable edge on this game. — Jets sharp/whale money is intriguing (+2.0% Pinnacle split, $255K whale volume) but Bayesian posterior shows +0.0pp edge everywhere and NHL is paused at -13.9% ROI; no bet clears vig on ML (-192), spread (-162), or total (-127).
66% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 66%
Book Implied 66%
Edge 0.0%
Line Movement
Current Home -1.5 (+136) / ML Home -192 / Total 5.5
Movement No significant line movement detected
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion says market is right: 65.8% Montreal ML with +0.0pp edge and INSUFFICIENT_DATA model agreement. Montreal is missing Matheson, Montembeault (IR) and Suzuki while Winnipeg sits Morrissey on IR — net injury impact is a wash at -25% lambda each. The only signals worth anything are the moderate sharp split (2.0% Pinnacle vs retail toward Winnipeg) and the EXTREME whale stack ($255,980, 31 wallets, 70% away), but our own posterior gives that away side nothing — 58.8% to cover +1.5 at a -162 price is a losing ticket.
SHARP MONEY
Pinnacle vs retail divergence of 2.0% on ML and spread favors Winnipeg, EXTREME-tier whale volume ($255,980 across 31 wallets, 70% away) confirms — but this contradicts the Bayesian posterior which shows zero edge for the away side
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Winnipeg Jets None
52%
SPREAD Winnipeg Jets 1.5
-4.9 EV 52%
TOTAL over 5.5
-0.8 EV 51%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 52%
Winnipeg Jets 160
  • No edge: away posterior 34.2% equals market, and +160 implied 38.5% is actually worse than fair value; only sharp/whale divergence (2.0% Market Consensus split, $255,980 whale volume on away) keeps this on the radar
SPREAD PICK
○ 52%
Winnipeg Jets 1.5
  • No edge: away cover posterior 58.8% (-0.3pp vs market) below the 61.8% breakeven required at -162; recommend passing despite sharp side aligning with away
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 51%
OVER 5.5
  • No edge: over posterior 55.5% equals marketimplied 55.9% at -127 minus vig, netting -0.8/100; totals are our weakest market historically (48.7% WR) and NHL is paused
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Kalshi says MTL 62.5%, but Suzuki/Demidov/Montembeault all out, Bayesian edge 0.0pp and NHL calibration paused — model lines only, no price to bet.
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700