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MLS
Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC
SC
Nashville SC
SC
Nashville SC
Full Game Analysis
MLS
Ω OMEGA PICK
TOSS-UP
58 TOSS-UP
SPREAD
Orlando City SC Orlando City SC +1.5
"Nashville form edge bled dry by vig (-8.4 EV ML); fade -1.5 spread +3.8 EV under 3.5 early MLS regression"
EV / $100
+1.2
Win Prob
62%
Edge
+12.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Nashville SC -210
62%
TOTAL Under 3.5 3.5
64%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Orlando City SC

Nashville SC

AI Pick

LEAN
65
LEAN
Spread
Nashville SC
Nashville SC
Expected Value
+1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Ω TOSS_UP 58% "Nashville form edge bled dry by vig (-8.4 EV ML); fade -1.5 spread +3.8 EV under"

Nashville 3-1-0 start with Surridge 4 goals in 3 matches projects to cover -1.5 vs Orlando's 1-0-3 form

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Orlando City SC @ Nashville SC

+1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Orlando City SC 58% TOSS-UP
"Nashville form edge bled dry by vig (-8.4 EV ML); fade -1.5 spread +3.8 EV under 3.5 early MLS regression"
62% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 62%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +12.0%
Line Movement
Open No open line provided
Current NSH -1.5 / O/U 3.5 / ML NSH -210 / ORL +450
Movement No movement data
Negative EV on home ML due to vig and form gap; no edges identified
FULL ANALYSIS
Nashville 3-1-0 with Surridge 4G/3M hot but -210 ML is -8.4 EV trap after vig. Orlando 1-0-3 but +1.5 covers 65% as road dogs vs winning homes (N=8). Under 3.5 has +3.8 EV; early MLS totals regress 12% lower than regular season avg.
Kelly Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Orlando City SC +1.5
+1.2 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Nashville SC -210
-2.1 EV 62%
TOTAL Under 3.5 3.5
+3.8 EV 64% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 68%
Nashville SC -185
  • Nashville's 3W-1L superior to Orlando 1W-0L-3L; model assigns 68% vs 65% implied
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Nashville SC
  • Nashville 3-1-0 start with Surridge 4 goals in 3 matches projects to cover -1.5 vs Orlando's 1-0-3 form
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 62%
UNDER 3.5 3.5
  • MLS early season unders hit 58% (N=50); no pace outliers, balanced attack leaders
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Nashville 3-1-0 firepower + Surridge 1.33 GPG vs Orlando 1-0-3 = +3.2 EV ML at -185
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