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Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox
Sox
Toronto Blue Jays
Jays
Toronto Blue Jays
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +3.9% EV
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 1.5
"BOS +113 ML 5.7pp model edge + extreme whales/sharps; Over 8.5 +15pp Bayesian blowout on total mismatch"
EV / $100
+3.2
Win Prob
48%
Edge
-1.9%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Boston Red Sox None
60%
TOTAL over 8.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 5.3% divergence on ML with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1137844 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 298 trades Kalshi: 59 trades Largest: $29000
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +136.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
35.9%
ML
178 / -178

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Boston Red Sox

Toronto Blue Jays

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -134 / 112 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -108 / -100 -
Market Consensus -1.5 (190) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-115)
De-Vigged Fair Value 204 / -204 -104 / 104 O/U -108 / 108
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Boston Red Sox

J
Justin Slaten
(RP) 15-day IL — Slaten (oblique) threw a bullpen session Monday, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Sonny Gray
(SP) 15-day IL — Gray (hamstring) threw a bullpen session Monday, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.
15-Day-IL
P
Patrick Sandoval
(SP) 15-day IL — The Red Sox returned Sandoval (biceps) from his rehab assignment Thursday, Chris Henrique of BostonSportsJournal.com reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Triston Casas
(1B) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Casas (abdomen/knee) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kutter Crawford
(SP) 15-day IL — Crawford has been diagnosed with inflammation in his right elbow following an MRI, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Johan Oviedo
(SP) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Oviedo (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brendan Rodgers
(2B) out — Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.
Out
H
Hobie Harris
(RP) day-to-day — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Monday that Harris has been shut down due to forearm tightness, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Romy Gonzalez
(1B) 60-day IL — Gonzalez will have his left shoulder injury evaluated Tuesday to determine whether he needs to undergo surgery, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Houck
(SP) 60-day IL — Houck (elbow) began a throwing program Monday with 25 throws from 45 feet, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL

Toronto Blue Jays

G
George Springer
(DH) 10-day IL — Manager John Schneider said Springer (toe) hit and ran on the field again Tuesday and is likely to be activated from the 10-day injured list Wednesday, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
M
Max Scherzer
(SP) 15-day IL — Scherzer (1-3) took the loss Friday, surrendering seven runs on six hits -- including three home runs -- and three walks over 2.1 innings as the Blue Jays fell 8-6 to the Guardians. He failed to strike out a batter.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yimi Garcia
(RP) 60-day IL — Garcia (elbow) will throw live batting practice Wednesday, Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reports.
60-Day-IL
N
Nathan Lukes
(RF) 10-day IL — Lukes will receive an MRI on his left hamstring after leaving Friday's game against Cleveland, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Addison Barger
(RF) 10-day IL — Barger (ankles) is ramping up his baseball activities, with the next steps in his rehab program being running the bases and hitting live pitching, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jose Berrios
(SP) 15-day IL — Berrios (elbow) is scheduled to make his next rehab start for Triple-A Buffalo on Tuesday, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports.
15-Day-IL
C
CJ Stubbs
(C) day-to-day — The Blue Jays signed Stubbs to a minor-league contract Friday that includes an invitation to spring training.
Day-To-Day
S
Shane Bieber
(SP) 60-day IL — Bieber (elbow) will throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports.
60-Day-IL
G
Geovanny Jesus Planchart
(C) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
L
Lazaro Estrada
(RP) 15-day IL — Toronto optioned Estrada to Triple-A Buffalo on Sunday.
15-Day-IL
C
Cody Ponce
(SP) 60-day IL — Ponce underwent surgery Friday to repair the ACL in his right knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Alejandro Kirk
(C) 10-day IL — Kirk underwent surgery Tuesday to have a screw inserted into his fractured left thumb and is expected to be sidelined about six weeks, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Anthony Santander
(RF) 60-day IL — Toronto transferred Santander (shoulder) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.
60-Day-IL
C
Chay Yeager
(RP) out — Yeager will undergo season-ending UCL surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
Out
B
Bowden Francis
(SP) 60-day IL — Manager John Schneider revealed Tuesday that Francis is undergoing UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow and will miss the 2026 season, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (190)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Justin Slaten 15-Day-IL
Sonny Gray 15-Day-IL
George Springer 10-Day-IL
Max Scherzer 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays

+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Boston Red Sox 58% Lean
"BOS +113 ML 5.7pp model edge + extreme whales/sharps; Over 8.5 +15pp Bayesian blowout on total mismatch"
48% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 48%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -1.9%
Line Movement
Current TOR -1.5 -136 / BOS +1.5 +115 (est), ML TOR -136 / BOS +113, Total 8.5 -110
Movement No significant line movement detected
Net injury advantage away (-1.8%)
+3.9% EV on BOS ML per +EV analysis; away posterior beats breakeven 47% by 1.1pp
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion shows 5.7pp edge on BOS ML +113 (48.1% posterior vs 42.4% market) backed by sharp 5.3% divergence, extreme $1.1M whale volume on away, MC 50.9% BOS win prob. Total mismatch glaring: 65.2% over 8.5 posterior vs MC 20.1 projected runs (edge +15pp) despite no pitchers/weather. TOR injuries -8.7% > BOS -6.9%, net away spot value but cap conf due to overconfident calibration and PM home lean.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 5.3% on away ML + strong divergence signal
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Boston Red Sox 1.5
+3.2 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Boston Red Sox None
+2.5 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.5
+15.2 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
Boston Red Sox 113
  • Bayesian posterior 48.1% vs market 42.4% (+5.7pp edge) confirmed by sharp + whales
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Boston Red Sox 1.5
  • MC sims show BOS covers +0.0 in 50.9% vs market implied ~46%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 8.5
  • Over posterior 65.2% vs 50% market (+15.2pp); MC projects 20.1 total vs 8.5 line
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Boston +2.2 (Omega even line) + whales $562K extreme away, +18 EV ML; model ahead of -2.2 market steam
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