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MLB
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers
Tigers
New York Yankees
Yankees
New York Yankees
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK ALIGNED
63% Sharp Lean
63% Sharp Lean
MONEYLINE
Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers None
"Tigers +123 offers +8.4 EV per $100 vs Bayesian posterior — market is overrating Yankees without Stanton, Grisham, and Fried; Tigers spread +1.5 at -110 is the safer entry"
EV / $100
+8.4
Win Prob
52%
Edge
-8.0%
Size
1u
SPREAD Detroit Tigers 1.5
64%
TOTAL under 7.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$1963692 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (80% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 767 trades Kalshi: 116 trades Largest: $53821
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +15.0
Win Prob
34.7%
ML
189 / -189

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Detroit Tigers

New York Yankees

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Market Consensus - -141 / 127 ↑ -
Market Consensus -1.5 (151) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-114)
De-Vigged Fair Value 162 / -162 -134 / 134 O/U -106 / 106
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Detroit Tigers

J
Jackson Jobe
(SP) 60-day IL — Jobe (elbow) will throw live batting practice Saturday, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
60-Day-IL
W
Wenceel Perez
(RF) 60-day IL — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said Tuesday that Perez won't require surgery for the left orbital fracture he sustained June 16, but the outfielder lacks a clear timeline for a return, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports. "It's not, from what I understand, where it's going to be something long term," Hinch said of Perez's injury. "But it doesn't mean it heals itself fast. He's feeling better and better and reporting progress."
60-Day-IL
P
Parker Meadows
(CF) 60-day IL — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said Tuesday that Meadows (forearm) has yet to resume hitting and is without a timeline to return from the 60-day injured list, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Burch Smith
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Smith (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
G
Gleyber Torres
(2B) 10-day IL — Torres (oblique) received a cortisone injection Friday and is expected to start up his rehab program in the next day or two, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Justin Verlander
(SP) 60-day IL — Verlander (hip) has been scratched from a scheduled start Sunday versus the White Sox due to a left hamstring injury, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Javier Baez
(SS) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Baez (ankle) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Trey Sweeney
(SS) 60-day IL — Sweeney will undergo season-ending shoulder surgery this week, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brant Hurter
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Hurter on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to lumbar spine inflammation.
60-Day-IL
B
Bailey Horn
(RP) 60-day IL — Horn (elbow) began a throwing progression May 14, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reese Olson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Olson on the 60-day injured list Tuesday after he underwent a right shoulder labral repair Feb. 2 that will result in him missing the 2026 season.
60-Day-IL
J
Josue Briceno
(C) day-to-day — Briceno said Friday that he expects to be sidelined a few months after having surgery Wednesday to repair a tendon in his right wrist, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day

New York Yankees

T
Trent Grisham
(CF) 10-day IL — Manager Aaron Boone said Saturday that Grisham (hamstring) is expected to return from the injured list during New York's upcoming homestand, Chris Kirschner of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Ryan McMahon
(3B) 10-day IL — The Yankees placed McMahon on the 10-day injured list Wednesday due to a throat infection.
10-Day-IL
M
Max Fried
(SP) 15-day IL — Manager Aaron Boone said Saturday that Fried (elbow) is expected to begin facing hitters by late June or early July, Erik Boland of Newsday reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) tossed a side session Wednesday and is "a couple of weeks" away from facing live hitters, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
G
Giancarlo Stanton
(DH) 10-day IL — The Yankees announced that Stanton (calf) reinjured his calf and will have a slow week of activities, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Aaron Judge
(RF) 10-day IL — The Yankees announced Thursday that Judge has a stress fracture of his first rib on his right side and will be sidelined for 4-to-6 weeks before being re-evaluated, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor underwent Tommy John surgery last September and will miss the entire 2019 season, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (151)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Jackson Jobe 60-Day-IL
Wenceel Perez 60-Day-IL
Trent Grisham 10-Day-IL
Ryan McMahon 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees

+8.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Detroit Tigers 63% Sharp Lean
"Tigers +123 offers +8.4 EV per $100 vs Bayesian posterior — market is overrating Yankees without Stanton, Grisham, and Fried; Tigers spread +1.5 at -110 is the safer entry"
52% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 52%
Book Implied 60%
Edge -8.0%
Line Movement
Open -1.5 home (no open data)
Current Total 7.5 / ML Home -148 / ML Away +123 / Spread Home -1.5
Movement No significant line velocity detected in the provided data. The market spread of -1.5 is the standard home-field edge, and the total 7.5 is typical for a MLB game. The absence of movement suggests either low betting volume on this specific line or broad market alignment.
Yankees missing Stanton, Grisham, and Fried (key bats and ace starter) Tigers missing Verlander and Meadows (rotation depth and defensive CF) Roughly equal overall injury impact (-7.8% each side per lambda adjustment) Omega total (22.5) vs Market total (7.5) — massive divergence suggests the model sees a high-scoring environment, likely due to injured pitching staffs on both sides
The Yankees moneyline at -148 is a negative EV play based on our probability models. Our posterior gives NYY only a 51.7% win chance, well below the 59.7% needed to break even. However, the calibrated edge for the *away* moneyline (Tigers +123) is +7.9pp, which is a strong positive EV signal on Detroit.
FULL ANALYSIS
The Bayesian fusion shows a massive discrepancy between market pricing (Yankees -148, 59.7%) and model consensus (posterior 51.7%). The Tigers as +123 underdogs offer +7.9pp of edge, driven by Omega's coin-flip projection and near-equal injury impact on both sides. The spread +1.5 provides additional insurance against a 1-run loss — at -110, +3.9pp edge. The total is a mess: Omega's 22.5 vs market 7.5 suggests extreme model uncertainty, so I'm fading the over on market number with a half-unit lean. No lock here; data quality is degraded and missing pitcher confirmations. Whales are heavy on NYY ($1.96M volume) but that's public prediction market money, not Pinnacle sharp action. The historical H2H calibration (NYY 55-42 vs model) is a real counterweight — reducing confidence from an otherwise sharp lean into a moderate one.
SHARP MONEY
The Bayesian fusion shows a strong model edge of -7.9% against the market favorite (NYY), with VERY_LOW model agreement. This indicates the models (ELO + Poisson) both favor the away side far more than the market. Whale signals from Polymarket show $1.96M in volume on the HOME side at 80% confidence, but this is prediction market money, not sharp book money. Without Pinnacle data, we cannot confirm a sharp signal, but the fusion posterior strongly implies value on the Tigers.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Detroit Tigers None
+8.4 EV 63% 1u
SPREAD Detroit Tigers 1.5
+7.8 EV 64% 1u
TOTAL under 7.5
+4.5 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 63%
Detroit Tigers 123
  • Bayesian posterior +7.9pp edge favoring Tigers (posterior 48.2% vs market 40.3%) with strong model disagreement against the market favorite
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
Detroit Tigers 1.5
  • Away cover posterior 53.9% (edge +3.9pp) with Omega line at 0.0 vs market -1.5; the 1.5 runs of insurance significantly increases cover probability above the moneyline
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
UNDER 7.5
  • Bayesian posterior for under is 34.8% (edge -15.2pp) — this is a strong anti-OVER signal, but the confidence is reduced because of the massive Omega total (22.5) which suggests extreme model uncertainty
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Yankees +135 with 8pp Bayesian edge, but under 22.5 is the strongest play at 77.2% Monte Carlo probability.
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