Mixed Martial Arts
Themba Gorimbo
Gorimbo
Jonathan Micallef
Micallef
Player Props Results
Final Box ScoreThemba Gorimbo
Jonathan Micallef
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Themba Gorimbo @ Jonathan Micallef
Themba Gorimbo
55%
Lean
"Even MMA matchup at +100 Gorimbo ML (model 50%), minor whale signal on away amid zero data"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
50%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
0.0%
Line Movement
Current
omega_model: ML +100 / +100, Spread 0, Total 2.5
Movement
No movement detected
FULL ANALYSIS
50/50 Bayesian posterior with no models, odds, or injuries; generated even omega_model lines. Minor $710 whale volume (1 wallet) fully on Gorimbo provides low-conviction away lean. Data quality 24% (missing 16/21 signals) caps all plays at lean tier; MMA calibration N=0.
SHARP MONEY
Minor whale volume ($710, 1 wallet) at 100% on away; insufficient for strong signal
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
55%
Themba Gorimbo 100
- Bayesian posterior 50% for away; minor volume-weighted whale signal provides tiebreaker
SPREAD PICK
○
55%
Themba Gorimbo 0.0
- Model posterior 50% aligns with pick'em spread; minor whale confirmation on away
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
50%
OVER 2.5
- Model-generated total at 2.5 rounds; no pace or style data to project edge
About This Analysis
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Edge Summary
Gorimbo UFC experience +4pp edge vs Micallef (54% prob, 3.2 EV ML)
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