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San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
Padres
Colorado Rockies
Rockies
Colorado Rockies
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San Diego Padres

Colorado Rockies

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action - 120 / -143 ↑ -
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

San Diego Padres

G
Griffin Canning
(SP) 15-day IL — Canning (Achilles) is scheduled to make his fourth rehab start Wednesday with Triple-A El Paso, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
N
Nick Pivetta
(SP) 15-day IL — Padres manager Craig Stammen told reporters Wednesday that Pivetta was diagnosed with a right flexor strain, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Joe Musgrove
(SP) 15-day IL — Musgrove (elbow) remains limited to playing catch during his throwing program and hasn't yet been cleared for bullpen sessions, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jeremiah Estrada
(RP) 15-day IL — Estrada (elbow) resumed playing light catch earlier this week, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yuki Matsui
(RP) 15-day IL — Matsui (groin) has turned in two scoreless rehab appearances at Triple-A El Paso, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yu Darvish
(SP) out — The Padres placed Darvish (elbow) on the restricted list Wednesday.
Out
B
Bryan Hoeing
(RP) 15-day IL — The Padres placed Hoeing (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
W
Will Wagner
(3B) 10-day IL — The Padres placed Wagner (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
J
Jhony Brito
(RP) 60-day IL — Brito (forearm) has been throwing bullpens in Padres camp, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Hunt
(C) day-to-day — Hunt is dealing with an oblique injury and has been shut down from activity, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Day-To-Day

Colorado Rockies

T
Tyler Freeman
(RF) day-to-day — Freeman left Monday's game against the Dodgers due to illness, Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Kyle Freeland
(SP) 15-day IL — Freeland (shoulder) threw a bullpen session Monday, Kevin Henry of The Denver Gazette reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jeff Criswell
(RP) 60-day IL — Criswell (elbow) will face live hitters over the weekend and begin a rehab assignment shortly thereafter, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
McCade Brown
(SP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Brown (shoulder) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
R
RJ Petit
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Petit (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Pierson Ohl
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Ohl (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Case Williams
(SP) day-to-day — Williams is currently slowed by a stress reaction in his right triceps, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brayan Castillo
(RP) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Castillo is dealing with right lat tightness and has been shut down from throwing while undergoing treatment for the injury, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Thomas
(CF) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Thomas hasn't been participating in spring training while he recovers from offseason surgery to address a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Kris Bryant
(DH) 60-day IL — Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies
until first pitch
Current Line
Key Injuries
Griffin Canning 15-Day-IL
Nick Pivetta 15-Day-IL
Tyler Freeman Day-To-Day
Kyle Freeland 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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OMEGA ANALYSIS

Crunching the numbers

Full EV analysis, situational factors, and model predictions generate as game time approaches.

Game Analysis

San Diego Padres enter as heavy favorites against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field, backed by a superior ELO rating (1671 vs 1481) and better record (12-4 vs 7-8). Despite numerous unknown injuries on both sides and limited data, the ELO-implied 75% win probability for Padres highlights a significant edge. Coors Field's altitude typically boosts scoring, but early-season uncertainties warrant measured confidence.
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 56%
San Diego Padres -180
  • ELO differential of -190 projects 74.9% Padres win probability vs market-implied ~64% at -180, creating 5-10% edge in best WR bucket
  • Padres' elite tier and 12-4 record dominate average Rockies despite Coors HCA
  • MLB ML overconfidence adjusted down 8% from raw 72
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
San Diego Padres -1.5
  • ELO-implied spread -7.6 far exceeds typical 1.5 run line, with Padres covering projected at 65%+ pre-adjust
  • Spreads harder (-3 pts calibration) and CLV weak (-3.5%), but directional edge holds amid Rockies' subpar form
  • Data gaps noted but ELO sufficient for lean
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 67%
OVER 11.0
  • Coors Field altitude historically inflates scoring (MLB avg +1.2 runs/game), projecting Poisson-like total ~12 despite no projections
  • Totals strength (57% WR, +1% boost) and no weather suppression support over
  • Limited pitcher data but venue trumps for edge
About This Analysis

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