Home › NHL › Colorado Avalanche @ Minnesota Wild
NHL
Colorado Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche
Avalanche
Minnesota Wild
Wild
Minnesota Wild
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK +33.7% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche -2.0
"Avalanche -2: sharp 12.9% spread edge + $286k extreme whales + MIN injury hit (-6.4% net) = 8.2 EV"
EV / $100
+8.2
Win Prob
55%
Edge
+5.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Colorado Avalanche None
55%
TOTAL under 3.8
57%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 12.9% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$397862 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 108 trades Kalshi: 327 trades Largest: $26272

Player Props Engine

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Colorado Avalanche

Minnesota Wild

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 110 / -130 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 112 / -126 -
Value Line - 114 / -129 -
Sharp Action Best Line 2.5 (-475) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-230) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 1.5 (-130)
Market Consensus - - Over 6.0 (-116)
De-Vigged Fair Value -214 / 214 119 / -119 O/U -108 / 108
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Colorado Avalanche

J
Joel Kiviranta
(LW) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
J
Josh Manson
(D) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day

Minnesota Wild

J
Jonas Brodin
(D) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
J
Joel Eriksson Ek
(C) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
C
Charlie Stramel
(C) out — Stramel signed a three-year, entry-level contract extension with the Wild on Monday.
Out
Game Preview
Colorado Avalanche @ Minnesota Wild
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread 2.5 (-475)
Total Over 1.5
Key Injuries
Joel Kiviranta Day-To-Day
Josh Manson Day-To-Day
Jonas Brodin Day-To-Day
Joel Eriksson Ek Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Colorado Avalanche @ Minnesota Wild

+8.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Colorado Avalanche 60% Lean
"Avalanche -2: sharp 12.9% spread edge + $286k extreme whales + MIN injury hit (-6.4% net) = 8.2 EV"
55% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 55%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +5.0%
Line Movement
Current Spread: Colorado Avalanche -2.0 / Minnesota Wild +2.0 | ML: Minnesota Wild +112 / Colorado Avalanche -129 | Total: 3.8
Movement No significant line movement detected.
Marginal +EV on away after boosting posterior 52.8% with sharp/whale/injury signals; spread shows +33.7% EV vs Market Consensus fair value.
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharps hammer away spread with 12.9% edge and +33.7% EV vs Pinnacle fair (away cover just 31.8% fair but retail lags). Extreme $286k whale volume (institutional tier, 28 profitable wallets) on Colorado aligns with net injury edge (-15.8% MIN impact vs -9.4% COL). Low 3.8 total favors sharp under (2.8% edge) in variance-heavy NHL playoffs; faded due totals 46.6% lean WR.
SHARP MONEY
Strong 12.9% sharp edge on away spread, moderate 2.8% on total under, weak on ML away; overall away bias with +33.7% spread EV.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Colorado Avalanche -2.0
+8.2 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Colorado Avalanche None
+1.8 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL under 3.8
+2.1 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Colorado Avalanche -129
  • Boosted posterior to 55% from 52.8% on net injury edge (-6.4% home disadvantage) + extreme whales
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Colorado Avalanche -2.0
  • Strong sharp 12.9% divergence on away spread + +33.7% EV vs Pinnacle fair (away cover 31.8% fair vs market)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 57%
UNDER 3.8
  • Sharp 2.8% edge on under vs fair value (under 48% fair vs market over 52%)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Extreme $286k whales + Wild injury massacre (-9.5% net) fuel Avs ML edge, MC 68% under 15.5 (+30 EV)
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