Spread: Minnesota Wild 1.5 (-205)
PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-07T17:16:39.524481 UTC
Away +1.5 cover posterior 65.0% vs market 65.0% with +0.3pp calibrated edge is only positive spread signal
NHL
Minnesota Wild
Wild
Tampa Bay Lightning
Lightning
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors over side. 1.6% divergence on total with moderate signal.
Sharp: over
Whale Activity Detected
$36873 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away
Polymarket: 12 trades
Kalshi: 42 trades
Largest: $3990
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAMinnesota Wild
Tampa Bay Lightning
Betting Odds Comparison
| Source | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp Action Best Line | - | -155 / 133 ↑ | - |
| Market Consensus | - | -152 / 134 | - |
| Value Line | - | -152 / 128 | - |
| Sharp Action Best Line | -1.5 (170) | - | - |
| Market Consensus | -1.5 (170) ↓ | - | - |
| Value Line | -1.5 (165) ↓ | - | - |
| Sharp Action Best Line | - | - | Over 6.0 (100) |
| Market Consensus | - | - | Over 6.0 (100) |
| Value Line | - | - | Over 6.5 (114) |
| De-Vigged Fair Value | 186 / -186 | -143 / 143 | O/U 107 / -107 |
Line Movement
Open
Current
Injury Report
Minnesota Wild
N
Nick Foligno
B
Brock Faber
F
Filip Gustavsson
Tampa Bay Lightning
E
Emil Lilleberg
Y
Yanni Gourde
D
Dominic James
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Recorded picks and reasons
These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.
Moneyline: Tampa Bay Lightning (-155)
PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-07T13:50:17.419637 UTC
No quant edge with calibrated 60.8% equal to market; home selected only as market/ML-spread consensus side
Player Prop: over (-110)
PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-07T12:34:41.735622 UTC
Kaprizov is Minnesota's primary offensive weapon; with Foligno day-to-day and Gourde out for Tampa Bay, Kaprizov sees increased ice time and scoring chances. Model projects 0.6 goals per game in this matchup.
Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Minnesota Wild @ Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning
61%
Lean
"No market edge with 60.8% fused = 60.8% market; lean Tampa Bay ML and Minnesota +1.5 with over 5.5 on sharp 1.6% total divergence"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
61%
Book Implied
61%
Edge
0.0%
Line Movement
Current
Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 / -155, Total 5.5
Movement
No significant line movement detected
FULL ANALYSIS
Books price Tampa Bay -155 implying 60.8% and Bayesian fusion agrees exactly at 60.8% with zero edge. Injuries hit both: Tampa Bay -18.9% vs Minnesota -15.8% for net 3.1% away benefit. Only micro-signals: away +1.5 at 65.0% posterior and over 5.5 at 54.9% with Pinnacle 1.6% sharp lean over.
SHARP MONEY
Weak 0.2% ML and 0.3% spread sharp edges to away, no RLM; only total shows moderate 1.6% sharp edge to over
MONEYLINE PICK
○
61%
Tampa Bay Lightning -155
- No quant edge with calibrated 60.8% equal to market; home selected only as market/ML-spread consensus side
SPREAD PICK
●
65%
Minnesota Wild 1.5
- Away +1.5 cover posterior 65.0% vs market 65.0% with +0.3pp calibrated edge is only positive spread signal
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
55%
OVER 5.5
- Over 5.5 posterior 54.9% equals market; only pickable on 1.6% Market Consensus sharp edge to over and +3.2% +EV on Value Line +114
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
No market odds available; model projects a tight game with slight edge to Wild on spread/ML. Kucherov over 1.5 points is the top play.
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