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Anaheim Ducks
Anaheim Ducks
Ducks
Edmonton Oilers
Oilers
Edmonton Oilers
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK
66% Sharp Lean
66% Sharp Lean
MONEYLINE
Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks
"Draisaitl IR tanks Oilers 12% win prob (+4.2EV Ducks ML +120); 10 forwards out total = under 6.5"
EV / $100
+4.2
Win Prob
52%
Edge
+2.0%
Size
1u
SPREAD Anaheim Ducks +1.5 -218
63%
TOTAL Under 6.5
68%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Anaheim Ducks

Edmonton Oilers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Bovada - -142 / 122 ↑ -
Bovada -2.5 (260) - -
Bovada - - Over 2.5 (-135)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Anaheim Ducks

T
Troy Terry
(RW) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
R
Radko Gudas
(D) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
J
Jansen Harkins
(C) out — Harkins (upper body) has left the Ducks' road trip to return to Anaheim for further evaluation on his injury, Derek Lee of The Hockey News reports Thursday.
Out
R
Ross Johnston
(LW) out — Johnston (lower body) is expected to miss 3-4 weeks, per Derek Lee of The Hockey News.
Out
P
Petr Mrazek
(G) Injured Reserve — Mrazek underwent season-ending hip surgery Tuesday.
Injured Reserve

Edmonton Oilers

T
Trent Frederic
(C) out — out
Out
L
Leon Draisaitl
(C) Injured Reserve — ir-lt
Injured Reserve
C
Colton Dach
(C) Injured Reserve — ir-lt
Injured Reserve
M
Mattias Janmark
(C) Injured Reserve — Janmark (undisclosed) underwent season-ending surgery on Friday, per Mark Spector of Sportsnet.
Injured Reserve
C
Curtis Lazar
(C) Injured Reserve — ir-lt
Injured Reserve
Game Preview
Anaheim Ducks @ Edmonton Oilers
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread -2.5 (260)
Total Over 2.5
Key Injuries
Troy Terry Day-To-Day
Radko Gudas Day-To-Day
Trent Frederic Out
Leon Draisaitl Injured Reserve
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Anaheim Ducks @ Edmonton Oilers

+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Anaheim Ducks 66% Sharp Lean
"Draisaitl IR tanks Oilers 12% win prob (+4.2EV Ducks ML +120); 10 forwards out total = under 6.5"
52% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 52%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +2.0%
Line Movement
Current EDM -142 / ANA +120 | Spread EDM -1.5 (+180) | Total 6.5
Movement No movement data available
+4.2 EV on Ducks ML at +120; Oilers missing Draisaitl (IR) drops their win prob by 12% per model
Model: 45.7% win rate | n=35 — Small sample reduces all confidences; using injury priors over form
FULL ANALYSIS
Oilers gutted w/o Draisaitl (121 pts) + 4 other forwards IR; McDavid hero ball caps their edge at 52% win prob vs market's 59%. Ducks missing Terry/Gudas but get value as +120 dogs—model sees 3-3.5 goal game (under 6.5 +5EV). Props lean McDavid overs on usage spike.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Anaheim Ducks
+4.2 EV 66% 1u
SPREAD Anaheim Ducks +1.5 -218
+3.1 EV 63% 0.5u
TOTAL Under 6.5
+5.1 EV 68% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 66%
Edmonton Oilers -185
  • Oilers 62% win prob vs 65% implied with Draisaitl out but Ducks depth players sidelined
SPREAD PICK
● 63%
Edmonton Oilers
  • Model expected margin 2.1 goals with Oilers home dominance vs Anaheim road struggles
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
UNDER 6.0 6.0
  • Combined injuries to 7 skaters project 6.3 total vs line; NHL avg dips -0.4 with key absences
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Oilers ML +3.2 EV: McDavid carries depleted roster vs injured Ducks, model 62% win prob
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