Serie A
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
1
-
2
Final
Torino
Torino
Player Props Results
Final Box ScoreSassuolo
Torino
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Sassuolo @ Torino
+58.9 EV
per $100 wagered
Sassuolo
62%
Lean
"Sassuolo -0.5 +155: +58.9 EV (62% model win prob vs 39% implied)"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
62%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+12.3%
Line Movement
Current
Sassuolo -0.5 (Torino +0.5 -215 / Sassuolo -0.5 +155) | ML Torino +165 / Sassuolo -160 | Total 2.5
Movement
No significant line movement detected
Massive +58.9 EV on Sassuolo -0.5 +155 (62.3% model vs 39.2% implied); ML EV only +1.2 at -160
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian posterior pegs Sassuolo win at 62.3% matching ML implied, but -0.5 spread at +155 implies just 39% creating +58.9 EV disconnect from public home +0.5 juice (-215). Sassuolo better form (14-7-14 vs 11-8-16), no injuries/situational edges. Poor data caps at lean despite pricing gift.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
60%
Sassuolo -160
- Posterior 62.3% exceeds ML implied 61.5%, but short of 5% threshold for strong rec
SPREAD PICK
○
62%
Sassuolo -0.5
- 62.3% model win prob vs +155 spread implied 39.2% (equivalent to win prob for -0.5)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
55%
UNDER 2.5
- Serie A low-scoring spot (historical ~2.6 gpg), 2.5 total with no pace data
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Sassuolo ML/SP +0.5 neutral EV (59% posterior = market), under 2.5 lean on low Serie A scoring
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