NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
76ers
Boston Celtics
Celtics
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors over side. 19.0% divergence on total with strong signal.
Sharp: over
Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$3111195 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home
Polymarket: 839 trades
Kalshi: 1118 trades
Largest: $48234
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAPhiladelphia 76ers
Boston Celtics
Betting Odds Comparison
| Source | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp Action Best Line | - | -575 / 400 ↑ | - |
| Market Consensus | - | -546 / 417 | - |
| Sharp Action Best Line | - | - | Over 21.5 (220) |
| Market Consensus | - | - | Over 214.5 (-101) |
| Market Consensus Best Line | -11.5 (-108) | - | - |
| Value Line | -11.5 (-114) ↓ | - | - |
| De-Vigged Fair Value | -102 / 102 | -498 / 498 | O/U 107 / -107 |
Line Movement
Open
Current
Injury Report
Philadelphia 76ers
J
Joel Embiid
Boston Celtics
No injuries reported
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics
+3.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Philadelphia 76ers
60%
Lean
"PHI +11.5: 3% Pinnacle overlay (fair 49.5% cover) + sharp 1.1% edge fades Embiid overreaction"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
85%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+34.6%
Line Movement
Current
BOS -11.5 (-115/-105) | O/U 214.5 | ML BOS -550/PHI +410
Movement
No significant line movement detected
away_injury_impact:-3.5% (Joel Embiid Day-To-Day)
ML EV neutral at best due to -550 juice; chase spread/total value instead
FULL ANALYSIS
Pinnacle de-vig fair line BOS -10 (50.5% cover) vs retail -11.5 (-115 implies 53.5%), creating 3% EV on PHI +11.5 with sharp 1.1% backing away despite Embiid -3.4% lambda hit. Whale $3.1M extreme home ML ignored per sharp default rule. Over 214.5 has 19% sharp edge + cross-market over lean, but totals cap at Lean post-calibration.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 1.1% spread away + 0.7% ML away (default over contradicting whale); strong 19% total over separate
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
50%
Philadelphia 76ers 410
- No edge; our 15.4% < +410 implied 19.6%
SPREAD PICK
○
60%
Philadelphia 76ers 11.5
- Pinnacle fair away cover 49.5% vs market implied 46.5% (+3% overlay), sharp 1.1% edge to PHI
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
58%
OVER 214.5
- Sharp 19.0% divergence to over + Pinnacle fair over 48.4% vs retail pricing
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Philly +13.5 (MC 69% cover, omega +11pt edge) obliterates Embiid overreaction; over 119.8 +45 EV
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