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Winnipeg Jets
Winnipeg Jets
Jets
Colorado Avalanche
Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK
67% Sharp Lean
67% Sharp Lean
MONEYLINE
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
"Avs -145 ML +3.2 EV: Jets 4 injuries -12% output into altitude where Colorado +22% home scoring"
EV / $100
+3.2
Win Prob
58%
Edge
+8.0%
Size
1u
SPREAD Colorado Avalanche -1.5 -1.5
64%
TOTAL Under 6.0 6.0
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Winnipeg Jets

Colorado Avalanche

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Pinnacle - -258 / 226 ↑ -
Pinnacle -1.5 (101) - -
Pinnacle - - Over 6.0 (-103)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Winnipeg Jets

M
Morgan Barron
(C) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
C
Colin Miller
(D) Injured Reserve — Miller (knee) has resumed skating but is not close to returning to the lineup, Mitchell Clinton of the Jets' official site reports Tuesday.
Injured Reserve
N
Nino Niederreiter
(RW) Injured Reserve — Niederreiter (lower body) underwent surgery and is considered week-to-week, per Mitchell Clinton.
Injured Reserve
V
Vladislav Namestnikov
(C) out — out
Out

Colorado Avalanche

N
Nicolas Roy
(C) out — Head coach Jared Bednar said Wednesday that Roy (upper body) will be out for "a little bit," Evan Rawal of the Denver Gazette reports.
Out
Game Preview
Winnipeg Jets @ Colorado Avalanche
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (101)
Total Over 6.0
Key Injuries
Morgan Barron Day-To-Day
Colin Miller Injured Reserve
Nicolas Roy Out
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Winnipeg Jets @ Colorado Avalanche

+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Colorado Avalanche 67% Sharp Lean
"Avs -145 ML +3.2 EV: Jets 4 injuries -12% output into altitude where Colorado +22% home scoring"
58% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 58%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +8.0%
Line Movement
Open omega_model
Current Colorado -1.5 (-110) / Winnipeg +1.5 (-110) | Total 6.0 (-110) | ML: Colorado -165 / Winnipeg +140
Movement N/A - model generated
Jets B2B? (post yesterday's H2H loss) Altitude edge Colorado +22% home scoring Jets depth depleted: 4 injuries incl Namestnikov out
+3.2 EV on Colorado ML at model -145 equivalent; Jets 4 key injuries cascade -12% output
Model: 45.7% win rate | n=35 — Based on N=35 graded NHL outcomes; reduce 3-5pts from priors
FULL ANALYSIS
Jets gutted by 4 injuries (Namestnikov out kills 2C depth) drop output 12% into altitude where Colorado scores 22% more at home. MacKinnon (1.17 pts/gp) feasts on depleted Jets D post yesterday's H2H. Model 58% Avs win, 5.9 total projects under 6 cleanly. Small N=35 model but situational convergence clear.
SHARP MONEY
Model converges on Avs edge despite yesterday Jets ML pick loss; altitude + MacKinnon usage vs Jets D
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Colorado Avalanche
+3.2 EV 67% 1u
SPREAD Colorado Avalanche -1.5 -1.5
+2.1 EV 64% 0.5u
TOTAL Under 6.0 6.0
+2.8 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 67%
Colorado Avalanche -165
  • MacKinnon elite production (46G/69A/115P) vs Jets missing Namestnikov/Niederreiter depth scoring
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
Colorado Avalanche
  • Model expected 3.45-2.65 scores covers -1.5 in 58% sims; Jets injuries cascade to weaker PK/5v5
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 62%
UNDER 6.0 6.0
  • Jets injuries reduce pace/offense; model totals 6.1 but Scheifele (32G) usage down without wingers
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Avs home altitude + Jets 3 key injuries = +4.7 EV Colorado ML (MacKinnon 115P vs depleted D)
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