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MLS
Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union
Union
Charlotte FC
FC
Charlotte FC
Full Game Analysis
MLS
Ω OMEGA PICK
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 0.5
"PHI +0.5 & ML +205: omega spread 0.0 vs mkt -0.5 (0.5pt edge), 55% win prob = +3.2 EV"
EV / $100
+4.8
Win Prob
55%
Edge
+5.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Union None
65%
TOTAL over 2.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
13.0
Edge: +10.5
Win Prob
28.4%
ML
252 / -252

Player Props Engine

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Philadelphia Union

Charlotte FC

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
CHA -100 / PHI -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
Philadelphia Union @ Charlotte FC
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Philadelphia Union @ Charlotte FC

+4.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Philadelphia Union 65% Sharp Lean
"PHI +0.5 & ML +205: omega spread 0.0 vs mkt -0.5 (0.5pt edge), 55% win prob = +3.2 EV"
55% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 55%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +5.0%
Line Movement
Open No open line provided
Current CLT -0.5 (-110/+150), Total 2.5 (-110), ML CLT +115 / PHI +205
Movement No movement data
PHI ML +205 offers +3.2 EV vs market (breakeven 33%, our 55% >5% edge); Charlotte ML fails moneyline filter (breakeven 46.5%, our 45% < threshold)
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega model pegs even spread (0.0) vs market CLT -0.5, giving PHI +0.5 0.5pt edge + Poisson 6.4-6.4 crushes 2.5 total. Union 0-0-5 start but +205 ML undervalued (our 55% prob vs 33% breakeven). Charlotte 2-2-1 mixed; fade home favorite with omega ML +252 fair.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Philadelphia Union 0.5
+4.8 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Union None
+3.2 EV 65% 1u
TOTAL over 2.5
+2.1 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 67%
Philadelphia Union 220
  • 55% our prob vs 31.25% implied at +220 exceeds breakeven by 23.75%; omega ML -252 Union heavily undervalued by DraftKings
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
Philadelphia Union 0.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market CLT -0.5 creates 0.5pt edge on Union +0.5; Union's 0-0-5 road record undervalued vs Charlotte's middling 2-2-1
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 54%
UNDER 2.5
  • MLS averages ~2.7 goals but model totals historically losing across tiers; ignore omega 13.0 Poisson outlier
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Union ML +220 (55% prob vs 31% implied, +4.1 EV) — omega even spread + road dog undervalued vs Charlotte's meh 2-2-1
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