Home › Serie A › Cremonese @ Parma
Serie A
Cremonese
Cremonese
Cremonese
Parma
Parma
Parma
Full Game Analysis
Serie A
Ω OMEGA PICK
TOSS-UP
65 TOSS-UP
SPREAD
Parma Parma -0.5
"Parma home vs cellar Cremonese: 8-10-11 record > 5-9-15, +3.3 EV ML at +110"
EV / $100
+2.7
Win Prob
55%
Edge
+5.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Parma
67%
TOTAL Under 2.5 2.5
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Cremonese

Parma

AI Pick

LEAN
66
LEAN
Spread
Parma
Parma
Expected Value
+2.7 EV
per $100 wagered
Ω LOW 65% "Parma home vs cellar Cremonese: 8-10-11 record > 5-9-15, +3.3 EV ML at +110"

Parma home in regional derby with Pellegrino (8G/29) vs Cremonese road dog priced +300

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Cremonese @ Parma

+2.7 EV
per $100 wagered
Parma 65% TOSS-UP
"Parma home vs cellar Cremonese: 8-10-11 record > 5-9-15, +3.3 EV ML at +110"
55% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 55%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +5.0%
Line Movement
Open No open line provided
Current Parma -0.5 (105 / -145), ML Parma 110 / Cremonese 265, Total 2.5
Movement No movement data
+EV on Parma ML at current price
FULL ANALYSIS
Parma's 8-10-11 mark crushes Cremonese's 5-9-15 misery, especially at home where Italian sides gain ~8% win prob. Model sees 55% Parma ML true prob vs 52% implied (+3.3 EV/100). Under 2.5 fits low-output forwards (Pellegrino 8G/29, Bonazzoli 6G/26) in tight derby spot.
Kelly Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Parma -0.5
+2.7 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Parma
+3.3 EV 67% 1u
TOTAL Under 2.5 2.5
+1.2 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 69%
Parma +105
  • Market implies 51% but model sees 52% Parma win probability from home field + derby motivation
SPREAD PICK
● 66%
Parma
  • Parma home in regional derby with Pellegrino (8G/29) vs Cremonese road dog priced +300
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 62%
UNDER 2.5 2.5
  • Serie A derbies average 12% under 2.5 bias; low leader goal totals (8 max/29 matches)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Parma +105 ML home derby value vs +300 Cremonese; model 52% win prob (51% implied) for +1.4 EV
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