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MLB
Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins
Marlins
Colorado Rockies
Rockies
Colorado Rockies
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK ALIGNED
62% Lean
62% Lean
TOTAL
over over 11.5
"Bayesian fusion shows 65.2% over probability at 11.5 total, +15.2pp edge despite missing pitcher data — Coors Field factor supports high scoring."
EV / $100
+24.5
Win Prob
65%
Edge
+15.2%
Size
0.5u
SPREAD Colorado Rockies 1.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 0.1% divergence on ML with weak signal.
Sharp: home
Whale Activity Detected
$828754 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 225 trades Kalshi: 96 trades Largest: $52000
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: -1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +11.0
Win Prob
28.1%
ML
255 / -255

Player Props Engine

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Miami Marlins

Colorado Rockies

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 130 / -155 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 126 / -136 -
Value Line - 123 / -155 -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-120) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 11.5 (-111)
De-Vigged Fair Value -115 / 115 131 / -131 O/U -105 / 105
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Miami Marlins

L
Liam Hicks
(C) 10-day IL — Hicks (back) is expected to return from the 10-day injured list Tuesday in Colorado when first eligible, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Janson Junk
(SP) 15-day IL — Junk (shin) allowed one run over 2.2 innings in his first rehab start with Triple-A Jacksonville on Sunday before exiting after being struck on the left wrist by a comebacker, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Josh Ekness
(RP) 60-day IL — Marlins manager Clayton McCullough said Monday that Ekness is expected to miss approximately six weeks due to a right calf strain, Kyle Sielaff of Marlins.tv reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Thomas White
(SP) day-to-day — White was diagnosed with a left shoulder capsular sprain Friday and is expected to miss the rest of the season, Isaac Azout of FishOnFirst.com reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Andrew Nardi
(RP) 60-day IL — The Marlins transferred Nardi (ribcage) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
R
Robby Snelling
(SP) 60-day IL — Snelling underwent internal brace surgery Friday to repair a torn UCL in his left elbow.
60-Day-IL
R
Ronny Henriquez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Marlins placed Henriquez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jesus Tinoco
(RP) out — The Marlins re-signed Tinoco (elbow) to a minor-league contract Jan. 5.
Out
A
Adam Mazur
(SP) 60-day IL — The Marlins placed Mazur (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL

Colorado Rockies

T
Tanner Gordon
(RP) 15-day IL — Gordon (hip) will start Tuesday's game against the Marlins, Suzie Hunter of GuerillaSports.net reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Tomoyuki Sugano
(SP) day-to-day — Sugano did not factor into the decision Friday, allowing seven runs on eight hits and one walk over five innings against the Twins. He struck out two.
Day-To-Day
J
Jaden Hill
(RP) 15-day IL — The Rockies placed Hill on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with right shoulder tendinitis.
15-Day-IL
C
Chase Dollander
(SP) 60-day IL — Dollander underwent an internal brace procedure on his right elbow Monday, Kevin Henry of The Denver Gazette reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brenton Doyle
(CF) 10-day IL — Doyle (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Albuquerque on Tuesday, Kevin Henry of The Denver Gazette reports.
10-Day-IL
B
Blas Castano
(RP) 15-day IL — Castano was called up from Triple-A Albuquerque on Thursday.
15-Day-IL
W
Welinton Herrera
(RP) 60-day IL — Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer announced Monday that Herrera (elbow) has been diagnosed with a torn UCL and will miss the remainder of the season, Jack Janes of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
McCade Brown
(SP) 60-day IL — Brown (shoulder) had been scheduled to throw a live bullpen session this weekend, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jose Quintana
(SP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Quintana on the 15-day injured list Monday with a left elbow sprain.
60-Day-IL
R
RJ Petit
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Petit (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brayan Castillo
(RP) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Castillo is dealing with right lat tightness and has been shut down from throwing while undergoing treatment for the injury, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
P
Pierson Ohl
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Ohl (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kris Bryant
(DH) 60-day IL — Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Case Williams
(SP) day-to-day — Williams is currently slowed by a stress reaction in his right triceps, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Thomas
(CF) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Thomas hasn't been participating in spring training while he recovers from offseason surgery to address a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 1.5 (-120)
Total Over 11.5
Key Injuries
Liam Hicks 10-Day-IL
Janson Junk 15-Day-IL
Tanner Gordon 15-Day-IL
Tomoyuki Sugano Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies

+24.5 EV
per $100 wagered
over 62% Lean
"Bayesian fusion shows 65.2% over probability at 11.5 total, +15.2pp edge despite missing pitcher data — Coors Field factor supports high scoring."
65% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 65%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +15.2%
Line Movement
Current Total 11.5, Spread +1.5, ML Home +129 / Away -156
Movement No significant movement detected
Strong positive EV on over 11.5, driven by calibrated posterior. However, missing pitcher data adds uncertainty.
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion shows a strong over edge at 11.5 total (65.2% posterior, +15.2pp), but missing pitcher data and degraded signal quality (68%) warrant caution. Coors Field historically boosts scoring, supporting the over. Whale signals heavily favor home side on moneyline, but spread edge is marginal. Recommend over total as primary play with reduced unit size.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
TOTAL over 11.5
+24.5 EV 62% 0.5u
SPREAD Colorado Rockies 1.5
+2.9 EV 55% 0.5u
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Colorado Rockies 1.5
  • Bayesian posterior shows 53.9% home cover probability at +1.5, +3.9pp edge
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 62%
OVER 11.5
  • Bayesian fusion posterior shows 65.2% over probability, +15.2pp edge vs market implied 50%
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Marlins +5.3% Bayesian edge at Coors; under 22.5 strong but degraded data caps confidence
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