MLS
Nashville SC
SC
Philadelphia Union
Union
Whale Activity Detected
$92056 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Strong away consensus (81% of whale volume).
Whales: away
Polymarket: 58 trades
Largest: $20235
Ω OMEGA LINE
OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
7.5
Edge: +5.0
Win Prob
39.9%
ML
151 / -151
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGANashville SC
Philadelphia Union
Model Lines
MODELSpread
-3.0
Moneyline
PHI 153
/
NAS -153
Win Probability
40%
-
60%
Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Nashville SC @ Philadelphia Union
+-8.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Nashville SC
59%
Lean
"Nash 7-1-1 vs 1-2-7 PHI, +185 ML 67 EV (58.6% prob), over 2.5 +14.9pp edge (exp 7.6 total)"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
59%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+8.6%
Line Movement
Current
PHI -0.5 (+130)/Nash +0.5 (-180), ML PHI +135/Nash +185, O/U 2.5 (-110)
Movement
No significant movement
Huge ML value on Nash +185 (breakeven 35%, our 58.6%); total over +23.9 EV
FULL ANALYSIS
Nashville's 7-1-1 explosion vs PHI's dismal 1-2-7 slump, omega Poisson 3.8-3.8 crushes 2.5 total (64.9% over posterior). ML +185 offers 67 EV at 58.6% our prob, backed by $66k whales (74% conf) and Kalshi 60.5% away. Spread Nash +0.5 edges omega 0.0 but vig kills EV; degraded data caps conf.
SHARP MONEY
Strong whale volume $66k (17 wallets, 74% conf) on Nashville, steam equivalent
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
59%
Nashville SC 185
- Nash 7-1-1 form vs PHI 1-2-7, posterior 58.6% away win vs +185 (35% breakeven)
SPREAD PICK
○
59%
Nashville SC 0.5
- Posterior 58.6% Nash +0.5 cover (draw + away win) vs omega even spread
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
●
65%
OVER 2.5
- Posterior 64.9% over 2.5 vs omega/MC/Dixon totals 6.8-7.6 (edge +14.9pp)
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Nash 7-1-1 vs 1-2-7 PHI, +185 ML 67 EV (58.6% prob), over 2.5 +14.9pp edge (exp 7.6 total)
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