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MLB
San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants
Giants
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +58.9% EV
62% Lean
62% Lean
SPREAD
San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 1.5
"Giants ML +7.3pp Bayesian edge (46.4% vs 39.1% impl) + over 7.0 +15.2pp model crush vs low line"
EV / $100
+18.4
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-3.6%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE San Francisco Giants None
46%
TOTAL over 7.0
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 15.7% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$720945 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (74% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 290 trades Kalshi: 28 trades Largest: $48108
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +156.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +15.5
Win Prob
35.8%
ML
179 / -179

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

San Francisco Giants

Philadelphia Phillies

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -154 / 129 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -148 / 134 -
Value Line - -155 / 125 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (320) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (153) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.0 (-107)
De-Vigged Fair Value 164 / -164 -141 / 141 O/U -100 / -100
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

San Francisco Giants

J
Jason Foley
(RP) 60-day IL — Foley (shoulder) is throwing live batting practice Tuesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Harrison Bader
(CF) 10-day IL — Bader (hamstring) was cleared to resume running the bases Tuesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jose Butto
(RP) 60-day IL — Butto underwent surgery Saturday to repair an artery in his right arm, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Daniel Susac
(C) 10-day IL — The Giants placed Susac on the 10-day injured list Tuesday with an elbow injury, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jared Oliva
(CF) 10-day IL — Oliva underwent left hamate bone surgery Thursday in Los Angeles, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
S
Sam Hentges
(RP) 15-day IL — Hentges (knee/shoulder) struck out one in a scoreless inning during Triple-A Sacramento's 7-6 win over Tacoma on Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
J
Joel Peguero
(RP) 15-day IL — Peguero (hamstring) earned a hold and struck out two in a scoreless inning during Triple-A Sacramento's 5-3 win over Las Vegas on Tuesday.
15-Day-IL
H
Hayden Birdsong
(RP) 60-day IL — Birdsong underwent successful UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reiver Sanmartin
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Sanmartin (hip) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
R
Rowan Wick
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Wick (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Randy Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Rodriguez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL

Philadelphia Phillies

J
J.T. Realmuto
(C) 10-day IL — Realmuto (back) took batting practice on the field and did agility in the outfield Tuesday, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
M
Max Lazar
(RP) 60-day IL — The Phillies transferred Lazar (oblique) to the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jhoan Duran
(RP) 15-day IL — Duran struck out one in a perfect ninth inning Saturday to record his fifth save of the season in a 4-3 win over the Diamondbacks.
15-Day-IL
Z
Zach Pop
(RP) 15-day IL — Pop is slated to serve as the Phillies' opening pitcher in Sunday's game against the Diamondbacks, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
15-Day-IL
D
Daniel Robert
(RP) day-to-day — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Keaton Anthony
(1B) day-to-day — Anthony suffered a fractured toe after fouling a ball off his foot during Monday's Grapefruit League game versus the Red Sox, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Andrew Bechtold
(3B) day-to-day — Bechtold signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays on Dec. 1.
Day-To-Day
J
Johan Rojas
(CF) Suspension — MLB announced Monday that Rojas has been suspended 80 games for violating the league's policy against performance-enhancing drugs, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
suspension
M
Michael Mercado
(RP) day-to-day — The Phillies reassigned Mercado (shoulder) to minor-league camp Thursday, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mark Kolozsvary
(C) day-to-day — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Christian McGowan
(RP) out — McGowan will miss the remainder of the season following Tommy John surgery, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
Out
Game Preview
San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (320)
Total Over 7.0
Key Injuries
Jason Foley 60-Day-IL
Harrison Bader 10-Day-IL
J.T. Realmuto 10-Day-IL
Max Lazar 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies

+18.4 EV
per $100 wagered
San Francisco Giants 62% Lean
"Giants ML +7.3pp Bayesian edge (46.4% vs 39.1% impl) + over 7.0 +15.2pp model crush vs low line"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -3.6%
Line Movement
Current Phillies -1.5 -156 / Giants +1.5 +129 | ML Phillies -156 / Giants +129 | Total 7.0
Movement No significant movement
injury_advantage_away
+6.3 EV on Giants ML at +129 (breakeven 43.5%, our 46.4%)
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion shows +7.3pp edge on Giants ML (46.4% posterior vs 39.1% implied) with omega -179 and MC 47.8% away win despite market -156 Phillies juice. Massive total mismatch: posterior over 7.0 at 65.2% (+15.2pp) aligns omega 22.5/MC 20.1 totals. Phillies injury hit harder (-8.7% vs -6.9%), sharp spread away +62.2% fair prob; whale home extreme but defaults to sharp.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp ML edge 1.0% away + spread +EV away 62.2% fair prob (strong signal); default to sharp over whale home
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD San Francisco Giants 1.5
+18.4 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE San Francisco Giants None
+6.3 EV 46% 0.5u
TOTAL over 7.0
+20.1 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 46%
San Francisco Giants 129
  • Bayesian posterior 46.4% vs market 39.1% (+7.3pp edge), omega Giants -179
SPREAD PICK
○ 62%
San Francisco Giants 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 + MC projected Phillies margin -0.3 + Pinnacle fair away cover 62.2%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 7.0
  • Bayesian over posterior 65.2% vs market 50% (+15.2pp), MC proj total 20.1 vs line 7.0
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Giants +1.5 -110 & ML +102: $182k EXTREME whale volume on away vs 56% Phillies market shade (+4.5-5.0 EV)
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