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Winnipeg Jets
Winnipeg Jets
Jets
Dallas Stars
Stars
Dallas Stars
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets 1.75
"Jets puckline +1.75 (3.1 EV) as Stars gutted by 4 key outs including Hintz; under 5.5 on depleted rosters"
EV / $100
+3.1
Win Prob
60%
Edge
+10.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Dallas Stars None
60%
TOTAL under 5.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

Player Props Engine

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Winnipeg Jets

Dallas Stars

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Pinnacle - -167 / 147 ↑ -
Pinnacle -1.5 (152) - -
Pinnacle - - Over 5.5 (-115)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Winnipeg Jets

M
Morgan Barron
(C) out — out
Out
C
Colin Miller
(D) Injured Reserve — Miller (knee) has resumed skating but is not close to returning to the lineup, Mitchell Clinton of the Jets' official site reports Tuesday.
Injured Reserve
N
Nino Niederreiter
(RW) Injured Reserve — Niederreiter (lower body) underwent surgery and is considered week-to-week, per Mitchell Clinton.
Injured Reserve
V
Vladislav Namestnikov
(C) out — out
Out

Dallas Stars

T
Tyler Myers
(D) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
S
Sam Steel
(C) out — Steel's (hip) timeline for a return to the lineup has yet to be determined, but he is not expected to suit up in the short term, Owen Newkirk of DLLS Sports reports Tuesday.
Out
M
Michael Bunting
(LW) out — Bunting (lower body) isn't expected to be return to the lineup in the near future, per Owen Newkirk of DLLS Sports on Tuesday.
Out
N
Nathan Bastian
(RW) out — Head coach Glen Gulutzan said Tuesday that an optimistic outlook for Bastian's (hand) return to the lineup would be within the next 10 days, according to Owen Newkirk of DLLS Sports.
Out
R
Roope Hintz
(C) out — Hintz (lower body) will be out for an extended period of time, Brien Rea of Victory+ reports Saturday.
Out
R
Radek Faksa
(C) Injured Reserve — Faksa sustained a lower-body injury while rehabbing his upper-body injury sustained during the Olympics, Stars radio analyst Bruce LeVine reports Friday.
Injured Reserve
T
Tyler Seguin
(C) Injured Reserve — Seguin (knee) will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 campaign and the entirety of the playoffs, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reports Thursday.
Injured Reserve
Game Preview
Winnipeg Jets @ Dallas Stars
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (152)
Total Over 5.5
Key Injuries
Morgan Barron Out
Colin Miller Injured Reserve
Tyler Myers Day-To-Day
Sam Steel Out
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Winnipeg Jets @ Dallas Stars

+3.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Winnipeg Jets 64% Sharp Lean
"Jets puckline +1.75 (3.1 EV) as Stars gutted by 4 key outs including Hintz; under 5.5 on depleted rosters"
60% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 60%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +10.0%
Line Movement
Current DAL -175 ML / 5.5 total
Movement No movement data
No positive EV on Dallas ML (-175 needs 63.6% breakeven, our 60% falls short); Winnipeg +145 offers value but injuries cap conviction
Model: 43.4% win rate | n=122 — Totals losing all tiers (cap <60); lean spreads profitable but small N=6
FULL ANALYSIS
Dallas -175 despite losing Hintz + 3 forwards (Bunting, Steel, Bastian out) while Jets miss Namestnikov/Barron but retain Scheifele (92A) firepower. Model sees Winnipeg +145 ML breakeven at 40.8% vs our 40% (no edge), but puckline +1.75 offers 3.1 EV on injury cascade. Under 5.5 projects best (9 total injuries = low shots/events), though model totals tanking at 34-41% tiers.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Winnipeg Jets 1.75
+3.1 EV 64% 1u
MONEYLINE Dallas Stars None
-2.7 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL under 5.5
+1.2 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 65%
Dallas Stars -246
  • Home ice + omega ML -246 despite even Poisson expected scores 9.6-9.6
SPREAD PICK
● 60%
Winnipeg Jets +0
  • Omega spread at 0.0 with Jets higher ELO (1515 vs 1453) despite ML favoritism
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 62%
UNDER 19.0 19.0
  • Omega total 19.0 with combined expected 19.2 but NHL lower-scoring variance + injuries reduce pace
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Jets +0 model edge vs -246 Stars ML despite injuries both ways, under 19.0 in depleted matchup (+1.1 EV)
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