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NHL
Winnipeg Jets
Winnipeg Jets
Jets
Pittsburgh Penguins
Penguins
Pittsburgh Penguins
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK
62% Lean
62% Lean
MONEYLINE
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins None
EV / $100
+0.1
Win Prob
63%
SPREAD Winnipeg Jets 1.5
58%
TOTAL under 6.5
57%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 0.5% divergence on ML with weak signal.
Sharp: away
Whale Activity Detected
$22050 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong away consensus (70% of whale volume).
Whales: away Polymarket: 11 trades Largest: $5889

Player Props Engine

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Winnipeg Jets

Pittsburgh Penguins

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -175 / 150 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -172 / 151 -
Value Line - -177 / 148 -
Sharp Action Best Line -1.5 (145) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (145) ↓ - -
Value Line -1.5 (143) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 6.5 (102)
Market Consensus - - Over 6.5 (-104)
Value Line - - Over 6.5 (-112)
De-Vigged Fair Value 157 / -157 -162 / 162 O/U 103 / -103
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Winnipeg Jets

C
Connor Hellebuyck
(G) Injured Reserve — ir-nr
Injured Reserve
G
Garrett Brown
(C) Injured Reserve — ir-nr
Injured Reserve
W
Walker Duehr
(RW) Injured Reserve — ir-nr
Injured Reserve
E
Elias Salomonsson
(D) Injured Reserve — ir-nr
Injured Reserve

Pittsburgh Penguins

B
Bryan Rust
(RW) Injured Reserve — ir
Injured Reserve
J
Justin Brazeau
(RW) Injured Reserve — Brazeau (lower body) was placed on injured reserve by the Penguins on Sunday.
Injured Reserve
R
Ryan Graves
(D) Injured Reserve — Graves (lower body) is out indefinitely and was placed on injured reserve Sunday.
Injured Reserve
Game Preview
Winnipeg Jets @ Pittsburgh Penguins
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (145)
Total Over 6.5
Key Injuries
Connor Hellebuyck Injured Reserve
Garrett Brown Injured Reserve
Bryan Rust Injured Reserve
Justin Brazeau Injured Reserve
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Spread: Winnipeg Jets 1.5 (-170) PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-04T01:53:30.262822 UTC

The spread line of +1.5 for Winnipeg is juiced to -170, indicating the market expects a one-goal game. With both teams missing key players, the game is likely to be tight. The Jets' injury-adjusted lambda is worse (-25% vs -18.9%), but the spread provides a full-goal cushion.

Player Prop: over (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-04T23:51:45.123462 UTC

Connor is the Jets' top offensive threat (5 points in team leaders). With Hellebuyck out, the Jets may need to outscore their defensive issues. Penguins' depleted forward corps could lead to more defensive zone time for Pittsburgh, creating scoring chances for Connor. Cap at 60 due to unvalidated roster.

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Winnipeg Jets @ Pittsburgh Penguins

+0.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Pittsburgh Penguins 62% Lean
OMEGA model sees no actionable edge on this game. No Bayesian edge (63% vs 63%); Jets +1.5 only validated NHL spread cell with 61.1% fair value, ML is
63% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 63%
Book Implied 63%
Edge 0.0%
Line Movement
Current Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5 / ML -170 / Total 6.5
Movement No significant line movement detected
No edge; posterior equals market prior, EV approximately zero
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian posterior 63.0% equals market 63.0% for home, zero edge. Cross-market CONFIRMED favors Penguins but sharp 0.5% and whale $22,050 MODERATE favor Jets, capping ML at 62 PASS. Jets +1.5 -175 aligns with 61.1% Pinnacle fair value for only validated NHL spread cell.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp money favors away on ML 0.5% and spread 0.2% with weak signal, no RLM
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Pittsburgh Penguins None
+0.1 EV 62%
SPREAD Winnipeg Jets 1.5
+2.1 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL under 6.5
+2.0 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 62%
Pittsburgh Penguins -170
  • Market, calibrated 63.0% and cross-market CONFIRMED all favor home; no positive EV
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Winnipeg Jets 1.5
  • Market Consensus fair value away 61.1% on spread plus weak sharp away lean supports Jets +1.5
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 57%
UNDER 6.5
  • Sharp side under 0.2% with Market Consensus fair under 50.8%; totals are weakest market so lean only
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Penguins 60.5% posterior matches market with zero EV; Hellebuyck IR gives +6.1% net home injury edge but data is POOR so PASS.
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