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NBA
Phoenix Suns
Phoenix Suns
Suns
Golden State Warriors
Warriors
Golden State Warriors
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω DDN SI PICK +2.4% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Phoenix Suns Phoenix Suns -4.5
EV / $100
+14.5
Win Prob
60%
Edge
+7.6%
MONEYLINE Phoenix Suns None
62%
TOTAL under 224.5
57%
Full DDN SI Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 3.1% divergence on spread with strong signal. RLM detected on spread, total.
Sharp: away Boost: +3
Whale Activity Detected
$356415 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (78% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 118 trades Kalshi: 128 trades Largest: $29439

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Phoenix Suns

Golden State Warriors

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -175 / 150 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -173 / 152 -
Value Line - -186 / 150 -
Sharp Action Best Line -4.0 (-120) - -
Market Consensus -4.5 (-101) ↓ - -
Value Line -4.5 (-109) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 227.5 (-110)
Market Consensus - - Over 226.5 (-118)
Value Line - - Over 227.5 (-106)
De-Vigged Fair Value 105 / -105 -163 / 163 O/U -110 / 110
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Phoenix Suns

M
Mark Williams
(C) out — Williams underwent surgery Thursday to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder and will miss an extended period of time, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.
Out

Golden State Warriors

G
Gui Santos
(F) day-to-day — Santos did not play in the second half of Sunday's 124-112 win over the Clippers due to a knee injury and will not play against the Suns on Monday, Danny Emerman of SFStandard.com reports.
Day-To-Day
D
Draymond Green
(F) out — Green (back) is out for Sunday's game against the Clippers.
Out
S
Stephen Curry
(G) out — Curry (rest) won't play Sunday against the Clippers, Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints.com reports.
Out
K
Kristaps Porzingis
(C) out — The Warriors are exploring potential trades involving Porzingis (personal), who remains away from the team indefinitely while dealing with ongoing health concerns, Anthony Slater of ESPN.com reports.
Out
M
Moses Moody
(G) out — Moody (knee) is progressing toward a potential return between December and January after rupturing his left patellar tendon in March, Anthony Slater of ESPN reports.
Out
J
Jimmy Butler III
(F) out — Butler (knee) could return sometime between January and February as he continues recovering from a torn right ACL, Anthony Slater of ESPN reports.
Out
Game Preview
Phoenix Suns @ Golden State Warriors
until tip-off
Current Line
Spread -4.0 (-120)
Total Over 227.5
Key Injuries
Mark Williams Out
Gui Santos Day-To-Day
Draymond Green Out
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Player Prop: over (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-01T18:46:09.101590 UTC

Highest-usage option on either roster; GSW down its primary perimeter defenders (Curry out, Moody out, Draymond out) — model projection rounds to 30+.

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Phoenix Suns @ Golden State Warriors

+14.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Phoenix Suns 60% Lean
DDN SI sees no actionable edge on this game. Suns -4.5 model lean at GSW minus Curry, Draymond, Porzingis and Moody (~20-25% strength hit), but no market odds exist — display-only, all .
60% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 60%
Book Implied 52%
Edge +7.6%
Line Movement
Open No market odds available
Current No market odds available
Movement No line history — market not posted
No live market exists to price against, so displayed EV is model-vs-standard-juice only and is not validated for this non-slate sport. Treat every number as information, not a betting signal.
FULL ANALYSIS
Curry, Draymond, Porzingis and Moody all out for GSW is a 20-25% team-strength hit, so the omega_model line puts the Suns at -4.5 road favorites (projected -163 ML). Best-estimate combined score is ~221-222, below the projected 224.5 total, with the under as the only directional lean above minimum confidence. No market prices exist to measure edge against — treat all of this as display information; unit sizes are all PASS.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Phoenix Suns -4.5
+14.5 EV 60%
MONEYLINE Phoenix Suns None
62%
TOTAL under 224.5
+2.1 EV 57%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 62%
Phoenix Suns None
  • Model win probability 62% breakevens against omega_model -163 exactly — no edge at the projected price, and ML confidence cap 65 sits below the 67% requirement for that price
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Phoenix Suns -4.5
  • Suns keep Devin Booker, Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks while Golden State loses Curry, Draymond Green, Porzingis and Moody — a ~20-25% team-strength hit on the home side
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 57%
UNDER 224.5
  • Curry (30%+ usage) out means GSW offensive efficiency drops ~20%; best estimate combined score is 221-222, under the 224.5 omega_model line
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Suns -4.5 model lean at GSW minus Curry, Draymond, Porzingis and Moody (~20-25% strength hit), but no market odds exist — display-only, all PASS.
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