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La Liga
Levante
Levante
Levante
Celta Vigo
Vigo
Celta Vigo
Full Game Analysis
La Liga
Ω OMEGA PICK
52% Lean
52% Lean
SPREAD
Celta Vigo Celta Vigo -0.5
EV / $100
-1.8
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+4.5%
MONEYLINE Celta Vigo None
55%
TOTAL under 2.5
50%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Levante

Celta Vigo

ELO Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
0.4
Moneyline
CEL -105 / LEV 105
Win Probability
51% - 49%

ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.

Game Preview
Levante @ Celta Vigo
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Levante @ Celta Vigo

+-1.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Celta Vigo 52% Lean
OMEGA model sees no actionable edge on this game. No Bayesian edge at 54.5% Celta ML (-120), vig kills value; poor data caps at lean/ (-0.1 EV)
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +4.5%
Line Movement
Current Spread: Celta Vigo -0.5 (-130) / Levante +0.5 (-105); ML: Celta Vigo -120 / Levante +320; Total: 2.5 (-110 both sides assumed)
Movement No significant line movement detected
Neutral vs de-vigged market; vig creates slight negative EV on home ML
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion posterior pegs Celta Vigo home win at 54.5%, matching de-vigged market with 0% edge amid poor data (36% signals). No line movement or situational flags; cool 52F/89% humidity tilts under 2.5 but totals WR 37.5% in leans. DDN 0W-6L vs Celta Vigo warrants caution on home side despite 4-2 vs Levante.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Celta Vigo -0.5
-1.8 EV 52%
MONEYLINE Celta Vigo None
55% 0.5u
TOTAL under 2.5
-0.5 EV 50%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Celta Vigo -120
  • Bayesian posterior exactly matches de-vigged market home win prob at 54.5%
SPREAD PICK
○ 52%
Celta Vigo -0.5
  • Poisson-fused posterior implies 54.5% home win but spread requires 56.5% breakeven
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 50%
UNDER 2.5
  • Cool 52F weather and high humidity limit scoring; LaLiga avg ~2.65 but totals historically losing (37.5% WR lean tier)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Levante +340 ML +95 EV (44.4% model vs 22.7% implied) but PASS low conf; home ML neutral at 55.6%
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