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Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz
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Houston Rockets
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Houston Rockets
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Utah Jazz Utah Jazz 17.5
"Jazz +17.5 sharp RLM (2.1% edge) + over 232.5 w/ 17.3% divergence despite Utah bloodbath; +5.1 EV"
EV / $100
+3.8
Win Prob
88%
Edge
+38.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Houston Rockets None
50%
TOTAL over 232.5
68%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Utah Jazz

Houston Rockets

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Market Consensus - -1567 / 945 ↑ -
Market Consensus -17.0 (-104) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 233.5 (-110)
Fair Value PIN DE-VIG 102 / -102 -982 / 982 O/U -102 / 102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Utah Jazz

K
Keyonte George
(G) out — George (hamstring) has been ruled out for Friday's game against the Rockets.
Out
I
Isaiah Collier
(G) out — Collier (hamstring) is out for Friday's game versus Houston.
Out
E
Elijah Harkless
(G) out — Harkless (hamstring) is out for Friday's game against Houston.
Out
L
Lauri Markkanen
(F) out — Markkanen (hip) will be re-evaluated in two weeks, Ben Anderson of KSL News Salt Lake City reports.
Out
J
Jusuf Nurkic
(C) out — Nurkic is scheduled to undergo season-ending nose surgery Wednesday, Chris Haynes of NBA TV reports.
Out
J
Jaren Jackson Jr.
(F) out — Jackson was diagnosed with a localized PVNS growth in his left knee and will miss the remainder of the season, Chris Haynes of NBA TV reports.
Out
W
Walker Kessler
(C) out — Kessler will undergo left shoulder surgery and will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 season, Tony Jones of The Athletic reports.
Out

Houston Rockets

S
Steven Adams
(C) out — The Rockets announced Wednesday that Adams has undergone season-ending left ankle surgery, per Shams Charania of ESPN.
Out
F
Fred VanVleet
(G) out — VanVleet suffered a torn ACL and may be out for the entire 2025-26 campaign, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.
Out
Game Preview
Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
until tip-off
Current Line
Spread -17.0 (-104)
Total Over 233.5
Key Injuries
Keyonte George Out
Isaiah Collier Out
Steven Adams Out
Fred VanVleet Out
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets

+3.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Utah Jazz 65% Sharp Lean
"Jazz +17.5 sharp RLM (2.1% edge) + over 232.5 w/ 17.3% divergence despite Utah bloodbath; +5.1 EV"
88% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 88%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +38.0%
Line Movement
Current HOU -17.5 / O/U 232.5 / ML HOU -1800 / UTA +1000
Movement RLM detected on spread (sharp away) and total (sharp over)
-1800 ML breakeven 94.7%; our 88% falls short by 6.7% + model ML profitable only at 73%+ tiers. Spread has +2.1% sharp edge on Jazz +17.5.
Model: 44.6% win rate | n=202 — NBA model 90-112 (N=202); recent 7d -31u; ML profitable only 73%+
FULL ANALYSIS
Utah crippled by 7 outs (Markkanen/Nurkic/George/Collier) but sharp RLM hits Jazz +17.5 (2.1% edge) + massive 17.3% over divergence w/ Pinnacle fair over 50.4% vs retail under juice. Houston Durant/Sengun feast but VanVleet/Adams absences cap dominance—expect garbage time overshoot. Tier data kills totals confidence but +EV too blatant to ignore.
SHARP MONEY
RLM on spread (sharp Jazz +17.5, 2.1% edge) + strong total over signal (17.3% divergence); sharp books see value vs retail juice
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Utah Jazz 17.5
+3.8 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Houston Rockets None
-4.2 EV 50%
TOTAL over 232.5
+5.1 EV 68% 1.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 67%
Houston Rockets -164
  • Model win prob 62.1% meets/exceeds -164 breakeven exactly; tier data shows ML profitable at 63-67%
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Houston Rockets -3.0
  • Omega Poisson model projects 103-100 Houston win (3pt edge), supported by ELO home win prob 74%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 203.0
  • Model projects 203 total exactly on line; NBA totals consistently losing across tiers (36-41%)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Houston -3 (103-100 model) + ML -164 edge on Utah's 4 key outs; +3.8 EV despite calibration drag
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