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MLB
Houston Astros
Houston Astros
Astros
Athletics
Athletics
Athletics
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +40.6% EV
67% Sharp Lean
67% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Athletics Athletics 0.0
"17.6% sharp spread edge + 40.9% EV on Athletics vs juiced Astros pricing; Hader-less bullpen massive fade"
EV / $100
+5.2
Win Prob
50%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Athletics None
64%
TOTAL over 10.0
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 17.6% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +126.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
25.4%
ML
293 / -293

Player Props Engine

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Houston Astros

Athletics

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 104 / -124 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 109 / -118 -
Value Line - 100 / -122 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-330) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-145) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 10.0 (-103)
Fair Value Fair Value -138 / 138 114 / -114 O/U 103 / -103
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Houston Astros

I
Isaac Paredes
(3B) Bereavement — Paredes is not in the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Red Sox.
bereavement
B
Bennett Sousa
(RP) 15-day IL — Sousa (oblique) will throw a live batting practice session next week, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
N
Nate Pearson
(RP) 15-day IL — Pearson (elbow) has progressed to throwing a live batting practice session, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hayden Wesneski
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros transferred Wesneski (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Monday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Enyel De Los Santos
(RP) 15-day IL — De Los Santos (knee) has tossed 2.1 scoreless innings while striking out one and allowing no hits or walks in two appearances for Triple-A Sugar Land since starting a rehab assignment Friday.
15-Day-IL
J
Josh Hader
(RP) 15-day IL — Hader (biceps) threw a bullpen session Friday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Brandon Walter
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros placed Walter (elbow) on the 60-day injured list.
60-Day-IL
R
Ronel Blanco
(SP) 15-day IL — The Astros placed Blanco (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday'
15-Day-IL
Z
Zach Dezenzo
(LF) 10-day IL — Astros manager Joe Espada said Sunday that Dezenzo won't be part of the Opening Day roster and will remain at extended spring training to rehab his right elbow injury, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Glenn Otto
(RP) day-to-day — The Astros reassigned Otto (shoulder) and Ray Gaither (shoulder) to minor-league camp Tuesday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day

Athletics

G
Gunnar Hoglund
(SP) 15-day IL — The Athletics announced Thursday that Hoglund has been diagnosed with a lumbar spine strain.
15-Day-IL
Game Preview
Houston Astros @ Athletics
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-330)
Total Over 10.0
Key Injuries
Isaac Paredes bereavement
Bennett Sousa 15-Day-IL
Gunnar Hoglund 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Houston Astros @ Athletics

+5.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Athletics 67% Sharp Lean
"17.6% sharp spread edge + 40.9% EV on Athletics vs juiced Astros pricing; Hader-less bullpen massive fade"
50% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 50%
Book Implied 50%
Edge 0.0%
Line Movement
Current HOU -126 / Athletics +104 / Total 10.0
Movement No movement data
Astros ML priced at -126 requires 55.8% win probability to break even; our 50% projection shows -4.7 EV. Massive +40.9 EV on Athletics spread +235 vs Pinnacle fair value.
Model: 52.0% win rate | n=248 — 10-2 vs HOU, 9-6 vs OAK; ML profitable in Strong tier but avoid 55-62 Lean (losing ML there)
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money crushing Astros spread pricing (17.6% edge, +40.9 EV away at +235 equiv) despite omega_model even matchup at 12-12. Astros bullpen gutted (Hader/Sousa/De Los Santos IL) + model 10-2 vs HOU. Yesterday's Astros win sets up regression in series; fade the -126 juice.
SHARP MONEY
17.6% sharp edge on spread favoring Athletics (away) vs retail pricing; strong signal despite no RLM.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Athletics 0.0
+5.2 EV 67% 1u
MONEYLINE Athletics None
+2.1 EV 64% 0.5u
TOTAL over 10.0
+1.8 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 64%
Houston Astros -113
  • Sharp money weak edge to away (1.2%) + model 7-2 vs Astros despite even omega ML -256/+256
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Houston Astros 2.2
  • 17.5% sharp divergence (market implies 78.7% Athletics cover vs Pinnacle fair 59.7%), omega spread 0.0 vs market 2.2
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 9.5
  • Omega total 24.0 vs market 9.5 (14.5pt edge) from Poisson 12-12 expected scores
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Astros +2.2: 17.5% sharp divergence (+45 EV at +260) vs omega even spread, market way off 12-12 Poisson
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