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La Liga
Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad
Sociedad
1 - 2
Final
Athletic Club
Club
Athletic Club
Full Game Analysis
La Liga
Ω DDN SI PICK
62% Lean
62% Lean
SPREAD
Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 0.5
"Sociedad +0.5 at -130: 6-1-3 away form vs Athletic's 3-3-3 gives a +3.5pp edge over implied, and under 2.5 at +110 is the derby total to take"
EV / $100
+7.7
Win Prob
60%
Edge
+3.5%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Real Sociedad None
50%
TOTAL under 2.5
58%
Full DDN SI Breakdown

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Real Sociedad

Athletic Club

Box Score + DDN SI Props

Box Score
FINAL
Real Sociedad
Sociedad
1
-
Athletic Club
Club
2
Real Sociedad 0.5
62% conf
L

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Total: under 2.5 (+110) LOSS · Recorded 2026-11-01T18:06:52.358143 UTC

Basque derbies are historically tight and low-scoring; Sociedad's strong away form (6-1-3) suggests defensive control, making under 2.5 at plus-money the highest-leverage total price.

Moneyline: Real Sociedad (+255) LOSS · Recorded 2026-11-01T18:06:52.298595 UTC

At +255 the implied 28.2% must be beaten by >33% for value; model gives ~40% away win, nominally +EV but below the 5pt-over-breakeven recommendation threshold given unvalidated inputs.

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Real Sociedad @ Athletic Club

+7.7 EV
per $100 wagered
Real Sociedad 62% Lean
"Sociedad +0.5 at -130: 6-1-3 away form vs Athletic's 3-3-3 gives a +3.5pp edge over implied, and under 2.5 at +110 is the derby total to take"
60% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 60%
Book Implied 56%
Edge +3.5%
Line Movement
Current Spread: -0.5 (Home -110 / Away -130), Total 2.5
Movement No movement data provided
Real Sociedad +0.5 at -130: 60% model probability vs 56.5% implied yields ~+7.7 EV per $100. Modest edge, unvalidated model era.
FULL ANALYSIS
Real Sociedad's 6-1-3 away record against Athletic's 3-3-3 at San Mamés is the entire edge; the +0.5 at -130 prices Sociedad'sno-loss probability at 56.5%, and the form split says closer to 60%. The under 2.5 at +110 is the sharper price in a derby historically prone to one-goal margins. Athletic ML at -105/+105 is a trap at breakeven >51% with a worse side record.
SHARP MONEY
No Pinnacle/retail divergence or move data available; inference only from Real Sociedad's 6-1-3 away form vs Athletic's 3-3-3 mark. Sample size caveat: N=9 games per team.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

DDN SI Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Real Sociedad 0.5
+7.7 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Real Sociedad None
50%
TOTAL under 2.5
+3.0 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 50%
Real Sociedad 255
  • At +255 the implied 28.2% must be beaten by >33% for value; model gives ~40% away win, nominally +EV but below the 5pt-over-breakeven recommendation threshold given unvalidated inputs
SPREAD PICK
○ 62%
Real Sociedad 0.5
  • Real Sociedad sit 6-1-3 away while Athletic are 3-3-3 at home; the +0.5 cushion converts a coin-flip derby into a bet on the better traveling side
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 2.5
  • Basque derbies are historically tight and low-scoring; Sociedad's strong away form (6-1-3) suggests defensive control, making under 2.5 at plus-money the highest-leverage total price
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Real Sociedad at +270 against a 3-3-3 Athletic side prices 84 points above de-vig fair value — the away form edge (+38% vs +35%) leaves ~+29 EV per $100 at +270.
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