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Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbac
New York Mets
Mets
New York Mets
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
New York Mets New York Mets 0.0
"Mets +186 ML (47% model prob vs 35% implied) in pick'em with ELO home edge, MC cover 47.1%"
EV / $100
+0.2
Win Prob
47%
Edge
-2.9%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Mets None
58%
TOTAL under 24.0
54%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Total
24.0
Win Prob
35.0%
ML
186 / -186

Player Props Engine

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Arizona Diamondbacks

New York Mets

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Market Consensus - -157 / 142 ↑ -
Market Consensus -1.5 (142) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.0 (-112)
De-Vigged Fair Value 153 / -153 -150 / 150 O/U -105 / 105
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Arizona Diamondbacks

J
Jordan Lawlar
(SS) 60-day IL — The Diamondbacks transferred Lawlar (wrist) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Carlos Santana
(1B) 10-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Santana on the 10-day injured list Tuesday with a right adductor strain.
10-Day-IL
M
Merrill Kelly
(SP) 15-day IL — Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo announced Sunday that Kelly (back) will make one more rehab start before joining the big-league rotation, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.
15-Day-IL
A
A.J. Puk
(RP) 60-day IL — Puk (elbow) has thrown multiple bullpen sessions since late March, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
L
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
(LF) 10-day IL — Gurriel (knee) continues to get at-bats and lightly run out of the batter's box in simulated games at Arizona's training camp, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kyle Amendt
(RP) day-to-day — Amendt underwent shoulder surgery Tuesday, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.
Day-To-Day
P
Pavin Smith
(1B) 10-day IL — Smith is not in the lineup for Monday's contest versus the Tigers.
10-Day-IL
B
Blake Walston
(SP) 60-day IL — Arizona placed Walston (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Cristian Mena
(RP) 60-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Mena (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tyler Locklear
(1B) 10-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Locklear (elbow) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
J
Justin Martinez
(RP) 60-day IL — Martinez (elbow) is throwing from up to 120 feet on flat ground, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Corbin Burnes
(SP) 60-day IL — Burnes (elbow) threw a bullpen session Monday, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Andrew Saalfrank
(RP) 60-day IL — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Derek Law
(RP) out — Law (forearm) signed a minor-league contract with the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, Aaron Hughes of SI.com reports.
Out
T
Tommy Henry
(RP) out — The Diamondbacks re-signed Henry (elbow) to a minor-league contract Monday.
Out

New York Mets

J
Juan Soto
(RF) 10-day IL — The Mets placed Soto (calf) on the 10-day injured list Monday.
10-Day-IL
M
Mike Tauchman
(RF) out — Tauchman underwent surgery Thursday to repair the torn meniscus in his left knee, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
Out
A
A.J. Minter
(RP) 15-day IL — The Mets placed Minter (lat) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
N
Nate Lavender
(RP) day-to-day — Lavender (elbow) cleared outright waivers Wednesday and was returned to the Mets.
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Hagenman
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
B
Brandon Waddell
(RP) day-to-day — The Mets outrighted Waddell to Triple-A Syracuse on Friday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Robert Stock
(RP) out — Stock experienced shoulder discomfort while playing with Team Israel in the World Baseball Classic and will undergo testing, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.
Out
G
Grae Kessinger
(3B) out — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Kessinger will get imaging done after suffering a left knee injury in Friday's Grapefruit League game against the Cardinals, SNY Mets reports.
Out
D
Dedniel Nunez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets transferred Nunez (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tylor Megill
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets and Megill (elbow) avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $2.5 million contract Thursday, Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reed Garrett
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Mets
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (142)
Total Over 7.0
Key Injuries
Jordan Lawlar 60-Day-IL
Carlos Santana 10-Day-IL
Juan Soto 10-Day-IL
Mike Tauchman Out
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Mets

+0.2 EV
per $100 wagered
New York Mets 55% Lean
"Mets +186 ML (47% model prob vs 35% implied) in pick'em with ELO home edge, MC cover 47.1%"
47% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 47%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -2.9%
Line Movement
Current omega_model: Spread 0.0 | Total 24.0 | ML Mets +186 / Dbacks -186
Movement N/A (model-generated lines)
No EV edge on model ML -186 (breakeven 65%; our prob 47% < breakeven by 18%)
Model: 53.3% win rate | n=336 — MLB 179-157 (53.3% N=336); leans profitable on spreads/ML but model vs Mets 8-12
FULL ANALYSIS
Pick'em matchup with MC projecting razor-thin Mets edge (47.1% cover +0.0, std 5.1) and ELO favoring home by 1.5 despite Poisson even scores at 12-12. Injuries heavy both sides (Soto/Gurriel out) but no clear tilt; model total 23.9 undershoots 24 line slightly. Data quality poor (42%) caps conviction—all signals neutral, favor ML dog value over juice.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD New York Mets 0.0
+0.2 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Mets None
+1.8 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL under 24.0
-0.4 EV 54%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
New York Mets 186
  • Model win prob 47.1% vs +186 implied 35%, creating marginal value on home dog
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
New York Mets 0.0
  • MC sims show Mets cover +0.0 in 47.1% vs 46.7% breakeven, ELO projects Mets +1.5 edge
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 54%
UNDER 24.0
  • MC shows under 24.0 hits 48.4% vs 52.4% breakeven but totals losing across tiers
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Mets +186 ML (47% model prob vs 35% implied) in pick'em with ELO home edge, MC cover 47.1%
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