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MLB
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates
1 - 2
LIVE
San Francisco Giants
Giants
San Francisco Giants
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +55.8% EV
59% Lean
59% Lean
SPREAD
San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants -1.5
"Pirates ML +7.6pp Bayesian edge at pick'em; Over 7.5 +15pp despite Oracle bias, MC 18.8 runs"
EV / $100
+7.1
Win Prob
55%
Edge
+5.2%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Pittsburgh Pirates None
55%
TOTAL over 7.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 13.2% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$316206 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 227 trades Kalshi: 11 trades Largest: $11983
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +110.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +15.0
Win Prob
32.3%
ML
210 / -210

Player Props Engine

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Pittsburgh Pirates

San Francisco Giants

Live Stats

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -111 / -109 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -105 / -103 -
Value Line - -118 / -106 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (385) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (196) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-111)
De-Vigged Fair Value 211 / -211 -101 / 101 O/U -105 / 105
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Pittsburgh Pirates

J
Jake Mangum
(LF) 10-day IL — The Pirates placed Mangum on the 10-day injured list Friday with a left hamstring strain, retroactive to Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
A
Anthony Solometo
(SP) day-to-day — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Chris Devenski
(RP) 15-day IL — The Pirates placed Devenski on the 15-day injured list Thursday due to an illness.
15-Day-IL
J
Jared Jones
(SP) 60-day IL — Jones (elbow) allowed one earned run on five hits and one walk while striking out two across three innings in a rehab outing with Triple-A Indianapolis on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
O
Oddanier Mosqueda
(RP) day-to-day — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mike Clevinger
(RP) day-to-day — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
D
Dominic Fletcher
(RF) day-to-day — Fletcher (shoulder) had his rehab assignment transferred to Triple-A Charlotte on Thursday and went 2-for-7 with a solo home run and a walk in his first two rehab games with the club.
Day-To-Day
S
Sean Sullivan
(SP) day-to-day — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Sullivan is battling right elbow soreness, Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
Day-To-Day

San Francisco Giants

L
Logan Webb
(SP) day-to-day — Manager Tony Vitello said after Tuesday's loss to the Padres that Webb was dealing with knee discomfort during his start, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Oliva
(CF) 60-day IL — The Giants transferred Oliva (wrist) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
H
Harrison Bader
(CF) 10-day IL — Bader (hamstring) went 1-for-3 in Triple-A Sacramento's 4-0 loss to Reno on Tuesday.
10-Day-IL
R
Rowan Wick
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Wick (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
S
Sam Hentges
(RP) 15-day IL — Hentges (knee/shoulder) struck out one in a scoreless inning during Triple-A Sacramento's 7-6 win over Tacoma on Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
E
Erik Miller
(RP) 15-day IL — Miller (back) will throw a bullpen session Thursday before beginning a rehab assignment with Triple-A Sacramento on Sunday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hayden Birdsong
(RP) 60-day IL — Birdsong underwent successful UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reiver Sanmartin
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Sanmartin (hip) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jason Foley
(RP) 60-day IL — Foley (shoulder) is throwing live batting practice Tuesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Randy Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Rodriguez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Daniel Susac
(C) 10-day IL — Susac (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Sacramento on Thursday, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jose Butto
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants transferred Butto (arm) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
Live Box Score
LIVE
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates
1
-
San Francisco Giants
Giants
2

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants

+7.1 EV
per $100 wagered
San Francisco Giants 59% Lean
"Pirates ML +7.6pp Bayesian edge at pick'em; Over 7.5 +15pp despite Oracle bias, MC 18.8 runs"
55% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 55%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +5.2%
Line Movement
Current SF -1.5 -110 / PIT +1.5 -110 | O/U 7.5 -110 | ML SF -110 / PIT -110
Movement No significant movement
+5.4 EV on Pirates ML at -110; +24.4 EV on over 7.5 but totals historically unprofitable
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fuses to 55% Pirates ML vs pick'em despite MC 59% Giants win and extreme whale home volume—edge from model consensus over market prior. Over 7.5 has massive +15pp posterior (65%) with MC 18.8 runs but Oracle 56F caps at lean after -5pt total adjustment. Giants RL lean on Ray edge (2.95 ERA) vs Mlodzinski (4.76) and +55% +EV.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 13.1% on Giants spread + moderate ML away but overall home divergence; whale extreme on home
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD San Francisco Giants -1.5
+7.1 EV 59% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Pittsburgh Pirates None
+5.4 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL over 7.5
+24.4 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Pittsburgh Pirates -110
  • Bayesian posterior 55.2% vs 47.6% implied (+7.6pp edge); sharp ML edge 2.8% away
SPREAD PICK
○ 59%
San Francisco Giants -1.5
  • MC sim 59.3% Giants cover 0 with +1.6 margin; +EV analysis shows 55.6% edge on home spread
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 7.5
  • Posterior 65.2% over vs 50% implied (+15.2pp); MC avg total 18.8, Omega 22.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Pirates ML -132 +3.9pp Bayesian edge (56.9% posterior) + MC 56% covers, fade extreme whales on Giants
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