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Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox
Sox
Toronto Blue Jays
Jays
Toronto Blue Jays
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +59.3% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 1.5
"BOS +119 ML +18 EV: MC 50% win/omega -180 fair vs -143 TOR juice, whales steam away"
EV / $100
+8.5
Win Prob
55%
Edge
+5.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Boston Red Sox None
62%
TOTAL over 7.0
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 15.5% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$581612 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong away consensus (90% of whale volume).
Whales: away Polymarket: 128 trades Kalshi: 1 trades Largest: $12297
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +143.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +15.5
Win Prob
35.7%
ML
180 / -180

Player Props Engine

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Boston Red Sox

Toronto Blue Jays

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -147 / 123 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -141 / 127 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (330) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (158) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.0 (-109)
De-Vigged Fair Value 170 / -170 -134 / 134 O/U -102 / 102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Boston Red Sox

P
Patrick Sandoval
(SP) 15-day IL — The Red Sox returned Sandoval (biceps) from his rehab assignment Thursday, Chris Henrique of BostonSportsJournal.com reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Sonny Gray
(SP) 15-day IL — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Thursday that the MRI on Gray's right hamstring did not reveal anything worse than expected, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Triston Casas
(1B) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Casas (abdomen/knee) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kutter Crawford
(SP) 15-day IL — Crawford has been diagnosed with inflammation in his right elbow following an MRI, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Justin Slaten
(RP) 15-day IL — Red Sox manager Alex Cora told reporters that Slaten (oblique) played catch Friday and Saturday, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Johan Oviedo
(SP) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Oviedo (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brendan Rodgers
(2B) out — Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.
Out
H
Hobie Harris
(RP) day-to-day — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Monday that Harris has been shut down due to forearm tightness, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Romy Gonzalez
(1B) 60-day IL — Gonzalez will have his left shoulder injury evaluated Tuesday to determine whether he needs to undergo surgery, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Houck
(SP) 60-day IL — Houck (elbow) began a throwing program Monday with 25 throws from 45 feet, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL

Toronto Blue Jays

T
Trey Yesavage
(SP) 15-day IL — Yesavage (shoulder) will be activated from the 15-day injured list to start Tuesday's game against the Red Sox, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yimi Garcia
(RP) 60-day IL — Garcia (elbow) will throw live batting practice Wednesday, Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reports.
60-Day-IL
N
Nathan Lukes
(RF) 10-day IL — Lukes will receive an MRI on his left hamstring after leaving Friday's game against Cleveland, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
G
George Springer
(RF) 10-day IL — Springer (toe) is hitting on the field and running ahead of Friday's game against the Guardians and could return to running the bases within the next few days, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Addison Barger
(3B) 10-day IL — Barger (ankles) is ramping up his baseball activities, with the next steps in his rehab program being running the bases and hitting live pitching, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jose Berrios
(SP) 15-day IL — Berrios (elbow) is scheduled to make his next rehab start for Triple-A Buffalo on Tuesday, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports.
15-Day-IL
C
CJ Stubbs
(C) day-to-day — The Blue Jays signed Stubbs to a minor-league contract Friday that includes an invitation to spring training.
Day-To-Day
S
Shane Bieber
(SP) 60-day IL — Bieber (elbow) will throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports.
60-Day-IL
G
Geovanny Jesus Planchart
(C) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
L
Lazaro Estrada
(SP) 15-day IL — Toronto optioned Estrada to Triple-A Buffalo on Sunday.
15-Day-IL
C
Cody Ponce
(SP) 60-day IL — Ponce underwent surgery Friday to repair the ACL in his right knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Alejandro Kirk
(C) 10-day IL — Kirk underwent surgery Tuesday to have a screw inserted into his fractured left thumb and is expected to be sidelined about six weeks, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Anthony Santander
(RF) 60-day IL — Toronto transferred Santander (shoulder) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.
60-Day-IL
C
Chay Yeager
(RP) out — Yeager will undergo season-ending UCL surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
Out
B
Bowden Francis
(SP) 60-day IL — Manager John Schneider revealed Tuesday that Francis is undergoing UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow and will miss the 2026 season, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (330)
Total Over 7.0
Key Injuries
Patrick Sandoval 15-Day-IL
Sonny Gray 15-Day-IL
Trey Yesavage 15-Day-IL
Yimi Garcia 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays

+8.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Boston Red Sox 60% Lean
"BOS +119 ML +18 EV: MC 50% win/omega -180 fair vs -143 TOR juice, whales steam away"
55% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 55%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +5.0%
Line Movement
Current TOR -1.5 (-143) / BOS +1.5 (+119); O/U 7.0; ML TOR -143 / BOS +119
Movement No significant movement
+18.2 EV on BOS ML +119 (breakeven 45.7%, our 55% exceeds by 9.3%)
FULL ANALYSIS
Models crush TOR favoritism: omega even spread/ML BOS -180, MC BOS 50.2% win (proj 10.4-9.8), Bayesian -6.5% edge to BOS. Extreme whales ($581k, 90% BOS) + net injury edge (-1.8% BOS adv) confirm vs sharp split. Degraded data caps conf, but +EV clear on BOS dog.
SHARP MONEY
Whale extreme volume on BOS (90% conf, $581k); sharp ML edge to away moderate despite spread sharp home
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Boston Red Sox 1.5
+8.5 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Boston Red Sox None
+18.2 EV 62% 1u
TOTAL over 7.0
+3.1 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 62%
Boston Red Sox 119
  • Bayesian posterior 52.3% TOR win vs market 58.9%; MC BOS 50.2% win prob
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Boston Red Sox 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market TOR -1.5; MC BOS covers +1.5 in 50.2% sims
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 7.0
  • Omega total 22.5 and MC 20.2 vs market 7.0; massive model overreaction
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
BOS -0.5 (MC 52.5% cover + $524k extreme whales 97%); under 21.5 (65.8% MC)
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