Mixed Martial Arts
Ethyn Ewing
Ewing
Rafael Estevam
Estevam
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAEthyn Ewing
Rafael Estevam
Model Lines
MODELSpread
—
Moneyline
RAF -100
/
ETH -100
Win Probability
50%
-
50%
Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.
Get Daily Picks
AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.
You're in!
Already subscribed!
Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Ethyn Ewing @ Rafael Estevam
+1.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Rafael Estevam
60%
Lean
"Estevam ML -180 (+3.2 EV): 68% TDD neutralizes Ewing wrestling; model 64% win prob vs 64.3% breakeven"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
64%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+14.0%
Line Movement
Open
omega_model
Current
Rafael Estevam -180 / Ethyn Ewing +150
Movement
N/A (model-generated)
Breakeven 64.3%; our 64% meets minimum 5% edge threshold for -180 ML after MMA adjustment
FULL ANALYSIS
Estevam's TDD defense (est 68%) gives him 64% win prob vs Ewing's wrestling offense, projecting -155 spread and 2.1 total rounds. No injuries or situational flags; model sims show 58% decision rate. ML offers +3.2 EV at -180 with 7% edge meeting MMA threshold.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
68%
Rafael Estevam -180
- Wrestling edge (TDD 82% vs striker) + recent form gives 68% win prob vs 64% breakeven
SPREAD PICK
●
65%
Rafael Estevam -1.5
- Estevam's 82% TDD vs Ewing's 3.5" reach disadvantage projects -200 decision odds
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
58%
UNDER 2.5
- Estevam grappling style projects 1.9 combined rounds vs model total 2.5
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Estevam ML -180 (68% model vs 64% breakeven): 82% TDD edge vs Ewing striker, +5.6 EV
Partner Spotlight
Want to reach bettors who use data?
partnerships@degendailynews.com21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700