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MLB
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbac
Tampa Bay Rays
Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +47.8% EV ALIGNED
68% Strong
68% Strong
SPREAD
Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
"Rays -1.5: 16% sharp edge + $787K whale volume at 77% confidence + +48.5% EV — strongest signal on the board"
EV / $100
+6.2
Win Prob
62%
Edge
-3.6%
Size
1.5u
MONEYLINE Arizona Diamondbacks None
62%
TOTAL under 7.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 15.8% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$798253 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (76% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 321 trades Kalshi: 30 trades Largest: $76394
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +15.0
Win Prob
41.5%
ML
141 / -141

Player Props Engine

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Arizona Diamondbacks

Tampa Bay Rays

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -194 / 159 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -184 / 165 -
Value Line - -200 / 160 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (235) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (119) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-113)
De-Vigged Fair Value 127 / -127 -175 / 175 O/U -106 / 106
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Arizona Diamondbacks

M
Michael Soroka
(SP) 15-day IL — Soroka (glute) is expected to begin throwing bullpen sessions twice weekly starting Tuesday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
James McCann
(C) 10-day IL — McCann (quadriceps) will start playing games in the Arizona Complex League next week, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Ryne Nelson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Diamondbacks transferred Nelson (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jordan Lawlar
(LF) 10-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Lawlar on the 10-day injured list Saturday with a right hamstring strain.
10-Day-IL
A
A.J. Puk
(RP) 60-day IL — Arizona is shutting down Puk (elbow) for another four weeks due to a capsule strain and he will also undergo another MRI in four weeks, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Juan Centeno
(C) Developmental List — The Diamondbacks re-assigned Centeno to minor-league camp Friday.
developmental list
C
Corbin Burnes
(SP) 60-day IL — Manager Torey Lovullo said Wednesday that Burnes (elbow) has been shut down from throwing after suffering a teres major strain, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Cristian Mena
(RP) 60-day IL — Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo told reporters Monday that Mena underwent surgery on his right shoulder and will be sidelined for the rest of the season, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Walston
(SP) 60-day IL — Walston (elbow) paused his rehab program earlier in the season, but he was expected to start building back up around the middle of May, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
A.J. Vukovich
(CF) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
D
Derek Law
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Martinez
(RP) 60-day IL — Martinez (elbow) tossed a bullpen session Friday, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Andrew Saalfrank
(RP) 60-day IL — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
K
Kyle Amendt
(RP) day-to-day — Amendt was invited to major-league spring training by the Diamondbacks, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
Day-To-Day

Tampa Bay Rays

J
Jake Fraley
(RF) 10-day IL — Fraley (hernia) began a rehab assignment with the rookie-level Florida Complex League on Saturday, going 0-for-3 as the designated hitter.
10-Day-IL
L
Luis Guerrero
(RP) Developmental List — The Rays acquired Guerrero from the Red Sox on Tuesday in exchange for Tristan Gray.
developmental list
T
Tre' Morgan
(1B) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
L
Logan Davidson
(1B) day-to-day — Davidson signed a minor-league contract with Tampa Bay on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 Houston reports.
Day-To-Day
S
Steven Matz
(SP) 15-day IL — The Rays placed Matz on the 15-day injured list Thursday with a left ankle sprain.
15-Day-IL
E
Edwin Uceta
(RP) 60-day IL — Manager Kevin Cash said Friday that Uceta (shoulder) will resume his throwing program sometime around June 29, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Manuel Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — Manager Kevin Cash said Friday that Rodriguez (elbow) will begin throwing live batting practice June 30, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
G
Gavin Lux
(LF) 60-day IL — Lux (shoulder) is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment June 29, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jonathan Heasley
(RP) 60-day IL — Heasley was returned to the major-league roster and placed on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with a right elbow stress reaction.
60-Day-IL
S
Steven Wilson
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rays hope Wilson (back) will be able to start bullpen sessions June 8, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jesse Scholtens
(RP) 15-day IL — Scholtens was charged with a blown save and dropped to 5-3 on the season in Monday's 9-7 loss to the Orioles in 13 innings after yielding five runs (three earned) on four hits across 1.1 frames. He struck out one batter.
15-Day-IL
A
Austin Vernon
(RP) day-to-day — The Rays have shut Vernon down from throwing due to right elbow soreness, per MLB.com.
Day-To-Day
R
Ryan Pepiot
(SP) 60-day IL — Pepiot will undergo surgery on his right hip May 13 and miss the rest of the 2026 season, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Alfredo Zarraga
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Tampa Bay Rays
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (235)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Michael Soroka 15-Day-IL
James McCann 10-Day-IL
Jake Fraley 10-Day-IL
Luis Guerrero developmental list
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Tampa Bay Rays

+6.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Tampa Bay Rays 68% Strong
"Rays -1.5: 16% sharp edge + $787K whale volume at 77% confidence + +48.5% EV — strongest signal on the board"
62% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 62%
Book Implied 66%
Edge -3.6%
Line Movement
Current Home -1.5 (spread), 7.5 (total), Home -193 / Away +158 (ML)
Movement No significant movement detected
Multiple day-to-day injuries on both sides — Rays slightly more impacted (-10.6% vs -8.7%) No probable pitcher data — high uncertainty on starting arms Indoor venue — no weather impact
Negative EV on Rays ML — market has already priced in home advantage and we see no edge. Fade the public favorite.
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money is screaming Rays -1.5 — 16.0% edge on spread with $787K in whale volume at 77% confidence and +48.5% EV at retail books vs Pinnacle fair value. The Bayesian model actually favors the D-backs on the moneyline (+3.6% edge at +158), creating a contrarian lean on the underdog. Total is a coin flip with no pitcher data — skip or tiny play under 7.5. The spread is the strongest signal here: multiple sharp indicators converge, and the market hasn't moved yet, so take -1.5 before it hits -2.0.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge on spread is 16.0% favoring home with strong signal. Whale volume is EXTREME ($787K) with 77% confidence on home. +EV analysis shows spread home at Bovada +235 offers +48.5% EV vs Pinnacle fair value. Multiple sharp indicators converge on Rays covering -1.5.
Recommended Sizing
1.5u
Positive EV with multiple confirming factors. Standard sizing.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
+6.2 EV 68% 1.5u
MONEYLINE Arizona Diamondbacks None
+4.1 EV 62% 1u
TOTAL under 7.5
+2.8 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 62%
Arizona Diamondbacks 158
  • Bayesian edge +3.6% favoring away on ML — model says 62.3% win probability vs market 65.9% for home
  • Sharp edge on ML also favors away (3.7%)
SPREAD PICK
● 68%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
  • Sharp money divergence: 16.0% edge on home spread with extreme whale volume ($787K, 77% confidence) and +48.5% EV at retail books vs Pinnacle fair value
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
UNDER 7.5
  • OMEGA total of 22.5 is clearly inflated (missing pitcher data), but market total of 7.5 is low — Bayesian posterior shows 65.2% over probability, yet whale signals and sharp money are silent on total
  • Historical MLB total performance is 48.7% — below break-even
  • Lean under based on indoor venue and lack of offensive firepower data
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Rays -1.5 at +235: sharp money +15.8%, whales $786K, +47.8% EV vs Pinnacle fair value — pound the spread
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