Home › NHL › Seattle Kraken @ Minnesota Wild
NHL
Seattle Kraken
Seattle Kraken
Kraken
2 - 5
Final
Minnesota Wild
Wild
Minnesota Wild
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild -250
"MIN spread +26% EV vs Pinnacle fair (11.5% sharp edge) + RLM under 6.5 despite even MC sims"
EV / $100
+11.5
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-4.4%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Seattle Kraken None
55%
TOTAL under 6.5
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +250.0
Total
19.0
Edge: +12.5
Win Prob
39.3%
ML
154 / -154

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Seattle Kraken

Minnesota Wild

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Injury Report

Seattle Kraken

S
Shane Wright
(C) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
P
Philipp Grubauer
(G) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
M
Max McCormick
(LW) out — McCormick will miss the entirety of the 2025-26 campaign after undergoing hip surgery, the team announced Tuesday.
Out

Minnesota Wild

Z
Zach Bogosian
(D) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
C
Charlie Stramel
(C) out — Stramel signed a three-year, entry-level contract extension with the Wild on Monday.
Out
Box Score
FINAL
Seattle Kraken
Kraken
2
-
Minnesota Wild
Wild
5
Minnesota Wild -250
65% conf
L

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Seattle Kraken @ Minnesota Wild

+11.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Minnesota Wild 65% Sharp Lean
"MIN spread +26% EV vs Pinnacle fair (11.5% sharp edge) + RLM under 6.5 despite even MC sims"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -4.4%
Line Movement
Current MIN -250 / O/U 6.5
Movement No movement data
-250 ML requires 71.4% breakeven; our 45.6% model prob = massive negative EV
Model: 49.1% win rate | n=273 — NHL 49.1% overall; spreads/moneylines profitable in Lean tier only
FULL ANALYSIS
MIN -250 spread has +26% EV at Bovada vs Pinnacle fair 48.4% with 11.5% sharp divergence. MC even matchup (44.8-46.3%) but Wild 21-10-8 home crushes SEA 15-17-6 road. Under 6.5 backed by RLM + 7% sharp edge despite model total anomaly. Grubauer out hurts SEA more than MIN injuries.
SHARP MONEY
11.5% spread divergence + RLM on total = strong sharp home bias despite ML juice
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Minnesota Wild -250
+11.5 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Seattle Kraken None
+1.2 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL under 6.5
+3.4 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
Minnesota Wild -125
  • 58% model win prob exceeds -125 breakeven (55.6%) by 2.4%; DDN 10W-6L vs Wild
SPREAD PICK
○ 56%
Minnesota Wild -0.5
  • Model projects Minnesota 3.0-2.5 edge from home ice (1.02 HCA) + DDN 10-6 vs Wild
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 5.5
  • Model total 5.5 reflects NHL variance + no pace flags; totals profitable in Lean tier
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Wild -125 ML (+3.2 EV): 58% model prob >55.6% breakeven + DDN 10-6 vs Minnesota home ice
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