MLB
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates
Atlanta Braves
Braves
Player Props Engine
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Atlanta Braves
Injury Report
Pittsburgh Pirates
Chris Devenski
(RP)
day-to-day — Devenski was removed from Friday's Grapefruit League game against the Tigers after being struck in the head by a batted ball.
Day-To-Day
Oddanier Mosqueda
(RP)
out — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
Out
Ronny Simon
(2B)
out — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Monday that Simon (shoulder) is projected to return to game competition in late March or early April, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
Out
Jared Jones
(SP)
60-day IL — Pirates senior director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Monday that Jones (elbow) should be ready for game action when he's eligible to return from the 60-day injured list in late May, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Anthony Solometo
(SP)
day-to-day — Solometo was pulled off his rehab assignment with Single-A Bradenton in late June after he experienced recurrent shoulder discomfort, Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
Day-To-Day
Atlanta Braves
Jurickson Profar
(LF)
Suspension — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
Suspension
Ha-Seong Kim
(SS)
out — Kim (finger) arrived at spring training Monday and said that he's been cleared to take part in fielding drills, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
Out
Joey Wentz
(RP)
out — Atlanta hopes to know the results of an MRI on Wentz's right knee Monday, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
Out
Daysbel Hernandez
(RP)
day-to-day — Atlanta transferred Hernandez (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.
Day-To-Day
Hurston Waldrep
(SP)
out — Waldrep will undergo surgery Monday to remove loose bodies from his right elbow, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
Out
Spencer Schwellenbach
(SP)
60-day IL — Atlanta announced that Schwellenbach underwent a procedure Wednesday to remove bone spurs from his right elbow, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Joe Jimenez
(RP)
60-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss acknowledged Wednesday that he's uncertain if Jimenez (knee) will be available to pitch at any point in 2026, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Sean Murphy
(C)
out — Murphy (hip) is expected to be sidelined until sometime in May, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
Out
Danny Young
(RP)
out — Atlanta signed Young (elbow) to a one-year contract Tuesday.
Out
AJ Smith-Shawver
(SP)
out — Atlanta announced Monday that Smith-Shawver (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the remainder of the 2025 season.
Out
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves
+2.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Atlanta Braves
67%
TOSS-UP
"ATL home +12% early edge vs PIT SP injuries (Jones IL), model +2.6% prob/2.8 EV"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
55%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+5.0%
Line Movement
Open
N/A - early season game
Current
N/A - no books yet
Movement
N/A
Early season (March 20): +12% home win rate historically (N=500+)
ATL altitude/turf edge at Truist (+8% pace)
PIT multiple SP/reliever injuries (Jones IL, Waldrep out)
Fair ML -128 for ATL vs market prior -120; marginal edge on home team
FULL ANALYSIS
ATL gets +12% home edge in March openers (N=500+) while PIT misses Jones/Solometo in rotation depth. Truist turf bumps pace but cool temps cap total at 8. Fuentes spring hot vs depleted PIT arms. Model sees 55% ATL win prob vs 52% prior.
Kelly Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
58%
Atlanta Braves -140 (model fair)
- Home field in Atlanta opener + superior projected lineup depth
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Braves home opener edge model-only (58% prob), but N=0 sample + no odds = PASS until market sets.
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