English Premier League
Liverpool
Liverpool
Manchester United
United
Whale Activity Detected
$94078 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Strong home consensus (85% of whale volume).
Whales: home
Polymarket: 15 trades
Largest: $10000
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGALiverpool
Manchester United
Betting Odds Comparison
| Source | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Consensus | - | 138 / 193 ↑ | - |
| Market Consensus | -0.25 (108) | - | - |
| Market Consensus | - | - | Over 3.0 (-115) |
| De-Vigged Fair Value | 113 / -113 | -116 / 116 | O/U -109 / 109 |
Line Movement
Open
Current
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Liverpool @ Manchester United
+-1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Manchester United
55%
Lean
"Efficient market 43.5% ManU de-vigged (our posterior match), +130 ML/+115 -0.5 dog pricing slight vig value; minor whales ignored"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
44%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-6.5%
Line Movement
Current
ML ManU +130/Liv -190; Spread ManU -0.5 (+115/Liv +0.5 -160); Total 3.5 (-110)
Movement
No significant line movement detected
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian posterior fuses at 43.5% ManU win prob matching de-vigged market exactly—no edge. Minor $4k whale on Liverpool (100% conviction but volume tier MINOR) + Kalshi 57% away unconvincing vs efficient line. Rivalry spot projects tight/low-scoring (under 3.5 viable but totals WR 48.7%). Data quality poor (36%), cap all at lean tier.
SHARP MONEY
Minor whale volume ($4k, 1 wallet) on Liverpool; too small for meaningful signal
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
55%
Manchester United 130
- De-vigged posterior exactly 43.5% matches breakeven for +130, neutral EV on dog side
SPREAD PICK
○
55%
Manchester United -0.5
- Posterior 43.5% home win aligns de-vigged market, +115 spread offers better pricing than ML
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
50%
UNDER 3.5
- EPL rivalry historically low-scoring (avg ~2.4 goals H2H last 10), 3.5 total high
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Man Utd +130 ML at model breakeven 43.5% (EV +0.1) vs Liverpool in tight EPL rivalry, poor data caps lean
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