Home › MLB › Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins
MLB
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies
Miami Marlins
Marlins
Miami Marlins
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +51.9% EV
56% Lean
56% Lean
SPREAD
Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies -2.2
"Phillies -2.2: 19% sharp spread edge + $375k extreme whales despite data gaps"
EV / $100
+4.2
Win Prob
52%
Edge
+2.1%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Phillies None
52%
TOTAL under 8.0
54%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 19.4% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$689662 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 379 trades Kalshi: 46 trades Largest: $10000

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Philadelphia Phillies

Miami Marlins

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 106 / -126 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 112 / -121 -
Value Line - 105 / -130 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-400) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-154) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-101)
De-Vigged Fair Value -147 / 147 117 / -117 O/U 105 / -105
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies

J
Jhoan Duran
(RP) 15-day IL — Duran (oblique) is scheduled to throw another bullpen session Saturday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Brandon Marsh
(LF) day-to-day — Marsh was removed from Friday's game against the Marlins with a bruised right elbow, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Christian McGowan
(RP) day-to-day — McGowan will miss the remainder of the season following Tommy John surgery, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Rene Pinto
(C) day-to-day — The Phillies signed Pinto to a minor-league contract Jan. 6.
Day-To-Day
M
Max Lazar
(RP) 60-day IL — Lazar (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Jersey Shore on Thursday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kyle Backhus
(RP) 15-day IL — Backhus allowed one run on two hits across one inning of work as an opener Wednesday against the Cubs. He struck out one.
15-Day-IL
J
J.T. Realmuto
(C) 10-day IL — Realmuto (back) took batting practice on the field and did agility in the outfield Tuesday, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
Z
Zach Pop
(RP) 15-day IL — Pop is slated to serve as the Phillies' opening pitcher in Sunday's game against the Diamondbacks, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
15-Day-IL
D
Daniel Robert
(RP) day-to-day — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Keaton Anthony
(1B) day-to-day — Anthony suffered a fractured toe after fouling a ball off his foot during Monday's Grapefruit League game versus the Red Sox, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Andrew Bechtold
(3B) day-to-day — Bechtold signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays on Dec. 1.
Day-To-Day
J
Johan Rojas
(CF) Suspension — MLB announced Monday that Rojas has been suspended 80 games for violating the league's policy against performance-enhancing drugs, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
suspension
M
Michael Mercado
(RP) day-to-day — The Phillies reassigned Mercado (shoulder) to minor-league camp Thursday, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mark Kolozsvary
(C) day-to-day — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day

Miami Marlins

P
Pete Fairbanks
(RP) 15-day IL — Fairbanks described the issue that forced him out of Monday's 5-4 loss to the Dodgers as numbness in his pitching hand, a potential recurrence of the nerve issue that sidelined him in April 2024 during his time with the Rays, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports. "Just a lot of diminished sensation," Fairbanks said after the game. "Felt like any movement of the wrist would exacerbate just loss of sensation in the index finger. So we'll see where it goes and how to work on it."
15-Day-IL
G
Griffin Conine
(LF) 10-day IL — Conine will undergo a left hamstring tendon excision next week, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Adam Mazur
(SP) 60-day IL — The Marlins placed Mazur (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
R
Ronny Henriquez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Marlins placed Henriquez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jesus Tinoco
(RP) out — The Marlins re-signed Tinoco (elbow) to a minor-league contract Jan. 5.
Out
Game Preview
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-400)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Jhoan Duran 15-Day-IL
Brandon Marsh Day-To-Day
Pete Fairbanks 15-Day-IL
Griffin Conine 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

Get Daily Picks

AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins

+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Philadelphia Phillies 56% Lean
"Phillies -2.2: 19% sharp spread edge + $375k extreme whales despite data gaps"
52% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 52%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +2.1%
Line Movement
Current Phillies -2.2 / Marlins +2.2 (ML Phillies -127 / Marlins +109, Total 8.0)
Movement No significant movement detected
Neutral calibrated edge (0%) but vigged ML shows negative EV at -127; spread offers +EV per sharp analysis
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp 19.1% spread edge + extreme $375k whale volume (45 wallets) on Phillies despite PM 4.1% home lean. Injuries hit Marlins harder (-10.1% lambda vs -8.7%), favoring low-scoring under 8 with sub-3.00 ERA leaders. Neutral Bayesian (52% Phillies ML) but spread +EV from Pinnacle fair value (away 40.9% fair vs retail).
SHARP MONEY
19.1% sharp edge on spread + 1.7% ML favoring Phillies; strong signal despite no RLM
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Philadelphia Phillies -2.2
+4.2 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Phillies None
-8.7 EV 52% 0u
TOTAL under 8.0
+0.5 EV 54% 0u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 52%
Philadelphia Phillies -127
  • Bayesian posterior matches devigged market at 52.1%; no edge
SPREAD PICK
○ 56%
Philadelphia Phillies -2.2
  • 19.1% sharp spread divergence + extreme $375k whale volume on away (45 profitable wallets)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 54%
UNDER 8.0
  • Low ERA starters (Sanchez 2.90, Junk 3.00) + injury lambda adj (-10.1% home scoring)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Phillies -2.2: 17.9% sharp edge + $373k extreme whales +46.8% EV vs Pinnacle despite degraded data
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700

SIGNAL · LIVE