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MLB
New York Mets
New York Mets
Mets
Los Angeles Angels
Angels
Los Angeles Angels
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.5% EV LATE TO MARKET
56% Lean
56% Lean
SPREAD
Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 2.2
"Angels +2.2 (56% posterior, +7.5 EV) + extreme whale home steam vs sharp fade, over 8 +24 EV on model total mismatch"
EV / $100
+7.5
Win Prob
51%
Edge
+1.1%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Los Angeles Angels None
51%
TOTAL over 8.0
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 20.0% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$2770179 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (94% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 511 trades Kalshi: 3872 trades Largest: $101744
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: -2.2
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.5
Win Prob
40.4%
ML
148 / -148

Player Props Engine

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New York Mets

Los Angeles Angels

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 107 / -128 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 122 / -135 -
Value Line - 128 / -157 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-350) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-137) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.0 (-102)
De-Vigged Fair Value -129 / 129 129 / -129 O/U 105 / -105
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Mets

R
Ronny Mauricio
(SS) out — Mauricio went 1-for-3 with a solo home run in Friday's win over the Angels.
Out
J
Jose Rojas
(3B) day-to-day — The Mets signed Rojas to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
N
Nick Burdi
(RP) day-to-day — The Mets reassigned Burdi to minor-league camp Tuesday.
Day-To-Day
J
Joe Jacques
(RP) day-to-day — The Mets signed Jacques to a minor-league contract Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Joey Gerber
(RP) 15-day IL — Gerber (finger) struck out two and allowed two hits over a scoreless inning during his rehab appearance Tuesday at Triple-A Syracuse.
15-Day-IL
J
Jorge Polanco
(1B) 10-day IL — Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said last Friday that Polanco (wrist/Achilles) has resumed performing baseball activities but is considered week-to-week in his recovery from a pair of injuries, SNY.tv reports.
10-Day-IL
L
Luis Robert Jr.
(CF) 10-day IL — The Mets are expected to place Robert (back) on the 10-day injured list, Chelsea Janes of SNY.tv reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kodai Senga
(SP) 15-day IL — The Mets placed Senga on the 15-day injured list Tuesday due to lumbar spine inflammation.
15-Day-IL
F
Francisco Lindor
(SS) 10-day IL — Lindor (calf) will wear a boot for the next week and remain shut down for at least three weeks, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kevin Herget
(RP) day-to-day — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Young
(1B) 10-day IL — The Mets placed Young on the 10-day injured list Wednesday, retroactive to Monday, due to a meniscus tear in his left knee.
10-Day-IL
A
A.J. Minter
(RP) 15-day IL — Minter (lat) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A St. Lucie on Thursday, Michael Mayer of MetsmerizedOnline.com reports.
15-Day-IL
M
Mike Tauchman
(RF) out — Tauchman underwent surgery Thursday to repair the torn meniscus in his left knee, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
Out
N
Nate Lavender
(RP) day-to-day — Lavender (elbow) cleared outright waivers Wednesday and was returned to the Mets.
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Hagenman
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
R
Robert Stock
(RP) out — Stock experienced shoulder discomfort while playing with Team Israel in the World Baseball Classic and will undergo testing, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.
Out
G
Grae Kessinger
(3B) out — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Kessinger will get imaging done after suffering a left knee injury in Friday's Grapefruit League game against the Cardinals, SNY Mets reports.
Out
D
Dedniel Nunez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets transferred Nunez (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tylor Megill
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets and Megill (elbow) avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $2.5 million contract Thursday, Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports.
60-Day-IL

Los Angeles Angels

R
Ryan Johnson
(SP) 15-day IL — Johnson (hamstring/illness) will begin a rehab assignment at Single-A Rancho Cucamonga on Sunday, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
W
Walbert Urena
(SP) day-to-day — Urena (0-3) took the loss Saturday against the Royals after allowing four runs on six hits and five walks across 3.2 innings. He struck out three.
Day-To-Day
A
Alek Manoah
(SP) 15-day IL — Manoah (finger) will begin a rehab assignment at Single-A Rancho Cucamonga on Saturday, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yusei Kikuchi
(SP) day-to-day — Kikuchi was lifted from his start Wednesday against the White Sox prior to the bottom of the third inning due to left shoulder tightness. He struck out a batter and allowed two hits and one walk over two scoreless frames before departing.
Day-To-Day
B
Ben Joyce
(RP) 15-day IL — Joyce (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment at Single-A Rancho Cucamonga on Wednesday, Taylor Blake Ward of TheSportingTribune.com reports.
15-Day-IL
L
Logan O'Hoppe
(C) 10-day IL — O'Hoppe said Monday that the fracture in his left wrist is small and he believes he will return from the injured list in a "couple of weeks," Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kirby Yates
(RP) 15-day IL — Yates (knee) has made three minor-league rehab outings since April 17, giving up a combined seven runs on seven hits while posting a 5:1 K:BB over three innings.
15-Day-IL
G
Grayson Rodriguez
(SP) 15-day IL — Rodriguez (shoulder) threw to live hitters in Arizona on Friday, and the Angels are evaluating how he came out of that session before determining the next step in his throwing program, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Robert Stephenson
(RP) 60-day IL — The Angels announced that Stephenson underwent ligament and flexor repair surgery on his right elbow Wednesday and is likely to miss the remainder of the season, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Anthony Rendon
(3B) 60-day IL — The Angels placed Rendon (hip) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-350)
Total Over 9.0
Key Injuries
Ronny Mauricio Out
Jose Rojas Day-To-Day
Ryan Johnson 15-Day-IL
Walbert Urena Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels

+7.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Los Angeles Angels 56% Lean
"Angels +2.2 (56% posterior, +7.5 EV) + extreme whale home steam vs sharp fade, over 8 +24 EV on model total mismatch"
51% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 51%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +1.1%
Line Movement
Current Mets -2.2 / Angels +2.2 | Total 8.0 | ML Angels +109 / Mets -125
Movement No significant movement
+EV on Angels ML at +109 and +2.2 spread cover; massive +24.5 EV on over 8
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian posterior gives Angels 56.3% cover +2.2 and 51.1% ML vs market, backed by extreme $2.1M whale volume (97% home). Total market at 8 ignores MC 19.4 projected and Omega 22.5. Sharp away but contradicted by whales/Pinnacle fair 59.7% home cover; degraded data caps edge.
SHARP MONEY
18.5% sharp edge on Mets spread cover, strong signal despite weak ML
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Los Angeles Angels 2.2
+7.5 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Los Angeles Angels None
+6.8 EV 51%
TOTAL over 8.0
+24.5 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 51%
Los Angeles Angels 109
  • Bayesian fusion posterior 51.1% vs market 47.9%, +3.2pp undervalued underdog
SPREAD PICK
○ 56%
Los Angeles Angels 2.2
  • Bayesian posterior 56.3% Angels cover +2.2 vs market 50%, +6.3pp edge
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 8.0
  • Posterior 65.2% over 8 vs market 50%, +15.2pp; MC projects 19.4 total
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Angels +103 ML (53.7% posterior vs 49.3% implied, +9 EV) + extreme $1.4M whales despite sharp contrarian
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