Mixed Martial Arts
Ricky Simon
Simon
Adrian Yanez
Yanez
Player Props Results
Final Box ScoreRicky Simon
Adrian Yanez
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Ricky Simon @ Adrian Yanez
+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Adrian Yanez
68%
Strong
"Yanez 4" reach edge + Simon 42% TDD weak = +3.2 EV at model -160 (12% striking mismatch)"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
62%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+12.0%
Line Movement
Open
omega_model
Current
Adrian Yanez -180 / Ricky Simon +150
Movement
N/A (model-generated)
Yanez +EV at model price despite vig-equivalent edge
FULL ANALYSIS
Yanez's 4" reach + 5.2 SLpM overwhelms Simon's 3.8 volume and 42% TDD, projecting 62% win prob vs model -160. Simon forces decisions in 68% starts but Yanez striking defense caps his output at 28 SSm. Under 2.5 hits 65% in grappler vs striker matchups with these metrics.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
68%
Adrian Yanez -160
- Yanez 4" reach advantage + superior striking volume (5.2 SLpM vs Simon 3.8) projects 12% striking edge
SPREAD PICK
●
65%
Adrian Yanez -155
- Model projects Yanez decision win probability 48% vs implied 42%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
●
64%
UNDER 2.5 2.5
- Simon wrestling style forces 68% of his fights to decision (under 2.5)
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Yanez 4" reach edge + Simon 42% TDD weak = +3.2 EV at model -160 (12% striking mismatch)
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