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MLB
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals
Atlanta Braves
Braves
Atlanta Braves
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +19.9% EV ALIGNED
62% Lean
62% Lean
MONEYLINE
St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals None
"Cardinals ML offers +6.6% EV but data quality degrades confidence; over 9.0 has sharp consensus but model outlier risk."
EV / $100
+6.6
Win Prob
50%
Edge
+3.1%
Size
0.5u
SPREAD St. Louis Cardinals 1.5
58%
TOTAL over 9.0
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 8.0% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +3
Whale Activity Detected
$828662 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 213 trades Kalshi: 21 trades Largest: $54000
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.5
Win Prob
34.2%
ML
192 / -192

Player Props Engine

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St. Louis Cardinals

Atlanta Braves

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -136 / 114 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -130 / 118 -
Value Line - -137 / 112 -
Sharp Action Best Line -2.5 (220) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (155) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 3.5 (130)
Market Consensus - - Over 9.0 (-104)
De-Vigged Fair Value 167 / -167 -124 / 124 O/U 103 / -103
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

St. Louis Cardinals

R
Ryne Stanek
(RP) Paternity — The Cardinals placed Stanek on the paternity leave list Tuesday, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Paternity
S
Skylar Hales
(RP) day-to-day — Hales was traded from the Rangers to the Cardinals on Thursday along with Mason Molina and international bonus pool money in exchange for Phil Maton, Katie Woo of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Chase Davis
(CF) day-to-day — Davis swatted a pair of home runs Monday in Grapefruit League action versus the Orioles.
Day-To-Day
Z
Zack Thompson
(RP) day-to-day — Thompson (shoulder) has been shut down due to an intercostal strain, Amber Winkler of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Day-To-Day
S
Sem Robberse
(SP) day-to-day — Robberse (elbow) has been sent to the Cardinals' Florida Complex League affiliate to begin a rehab assignment.
Day-To-Day
R
Ramon Urias
(3B) 60-day IL — Urias (elbow) returned to St. Louis to undergo an examination on his left elbow, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Packy Naughton
(RP) day-to-day — Naughton will undergo surgery next month to repair the damaged UCL in his left elbow, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Day-To-Day
V
Victor Santos
(RP) day-to-day — The Red Sox traded Santos (undisclosed) and Nick Robertson to the Cardinals on Friday in exchange for Tyler O'Neill (foot), Alex Speier of The Boston Globe reports.
Day-To-Day
I
Ixan Henderson
(SP) day-to-day — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.
Day-To-Day

Atlanta Braves

A
AJ Smith-Shawver
(SP) 60-day IL — Smith-Shawver (elbow) pitched three innings Tuesday during a rehab start with Single-A Augusta, allowing one run on three hits while striking out four batters, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Ronald Acuna Jr.
(RF) 10-day IL — Acuna (hamstring) went through a full pregame workout at Truist Park in Atlanta on Tuesday, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
10-Day-IL
S
Spencer Schwellenbach
(SP) 60-day IL — Schwellenbach (elbow) will likely report to Atlanta's spring training facility in early July and could be a candidate to rejoin the major-league rotation by late August or early September, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Robert Suarez
(RP) 15-day IL — An MRI on Suarez's right elbow came back negative Friday, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
D
Danny Young
(RP) 60-day IL — Young (elbow) walked and hit a batter but struck out three in a scoreless inning in his first rehab appearance with Double-A Columbus on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kyle Farmer
(DH) 10-day IL — Farmer (forearm) will begin a rehab assignment with Double-A Columbus on Tuesday.
10-Day-IL
S
Spencer Strider
(SP) 60-day IL — Atlanta transferred Strider (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
S
Sean Murphy
(C) 60-day IL — Murphy had the cast on his left hand removed Tuesday and is now wearing a splint to protect his fractured middle finger, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reprots.
60-Day-IL
J
Joe Jimenez
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss revealed Wednesday that Jimenez underwent another surgery on his left knee 3-to-4 weeks ago, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jurickson Profar
(LF) Suspension — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
suspension
J
Joey Wentz
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta placed Wentz (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -2.5 (220)
Total Over 3.5
Key Injuries
Ryne Stanek Paternity
Skylar Hales Day-To-Day
AJ Smith-Shawver 60-Day-IL
Ronald Acuna Jr. 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves

+6.57 EV
per $100 wagered
St. Louis Cardinals 62% Lean
"Cardinals ML offers +6.6% EV but data quality degrades confidence; over 9.0 has sharp consensus but model outlier risk."
50% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 50%
Book Implied 47%
Edge +3.1%
Line Movement
Current ML: Home -137 / Away +114, Spread: -1.5, Total: 9.0
Movement No significant movement detected.
Away moneyline offers positive expected value due to model's higher win probability than implied by market.
FULL ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals present value as underdogs with positive EV on moneyline and spread, but conflicting sharp signals (home side heavily backed) and degraded data quality (68%) limit conviction. Over 9.0 shows extreme model edge (+15.2pp) but the total is suspiciously low; sharp money agrees on over, but model agreement is very low. Given data gaps (no pitchers, weather, or reliable player props), all picks are low confidence. The Bayesian fusion suggests away side is undervalued, but execution risk is high.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge on spread (8.0%) and total (7.5%) but ML sharp side is away. Mixed signals.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE St. Louis Cardinals None
+6.6 EV 62% 0.5u
SPREAD St. Louis Cardinals 1.5
+2.9 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL over 9.0
+26.9 EV 60% 1.0u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 62%
St. Louis Cardinals 114
  • Bayesian posterior gives 49.8% win probability vs market 46.7% implied, yielding +6.6% EV
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
St. Louis Cardinals 1.5
  • Bayesian posterior shows 53.9% cover probability vs market 50%, yielding +3.9pp edge
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 9.0
  • Bayesian posterior 65.2% over probability vs market 50%, extreme +15.2pp edge
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
No edge: model probability equals implied (56.5%), poor data quality, pass or tiny bet.
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