Home › MLB › Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers
MLB
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbac
Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +56.6% EV EARLY VALUE
56% Lean
56% Lean
SPREAD
Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 2.2
"Dbacks +2.2: 56% Bayesian cover + Omega pick'em vs mkt -2.2, +7.5 EV despite whale home steam"
EV / $100
+7.5
Win Prob
56%
Edge
+6.3%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Milwaukee Brewers None
55%
TOTAL over 8.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.4% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$716807 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (73% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 298 trades Kalshi: 51 trades Largest: $48108
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +2.2
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
40.8%
ML
145 / -145

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Arizona Diamondbacks

Milwaukee Brewers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -128 / 107 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -123 / 111 -
Value Line - -125 / 102 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (350) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (173) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-107)
De-Vigged Fair Value 187 / -187 -117 / 117 O/U -100 / -100
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Arizona Diamondbacks

Z
Zac Gallen
(SP) day-to-day — Gallen (shoulder) is expected to throw a bullpen session Wednesday, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
G
Gabriel Moreno
(C) 10-day IL — Moreno (oblique) is expected to rejoin the Diamondbacks during the series against the Cubs that begins Friday, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Tyler Locklear
(1B) 10-day IL — Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo said Thursday that Locklear (elbow) is taking live at-bats and "trending in a positive direction," Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Corbin Burnes
(SP) 60-day IL — Burnes (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, Jose M. Romero of the Arizona Republic reports.
60-Day-IL
A
A.J. Puk
(RP) 60-day IL — Puk (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday and provided an update following the activity, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Pavin Smith
(1B) 60-day IL — Smith underwent surgery to remove bone chips from his left elbow Thursday, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
A
A.J. Vukovich
(CF) out — Vukovich is expected to miss roughly 2-3 months with a left shoulder injury, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.
Out
J
Jordan Lawlar
(LF) 60-day IL — The Diamondbacks transferred Lawlar (wrist) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Carlos Santana
(1B) 10-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Santana on the 10-day injured list Tuesday with a right adductor strain.
10-Day-IL
K
Kyle Amendt
(RP) day-to-day — Amendt underwent shoulder surgery Tuesday, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Blake Walston
(SP) 60-day IL — Arizona placed Walston (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Cristian Mena
(RP) 60-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Mena (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
J
Justin Martinez
(RP) 60-day IL — Martinez (elbow) is throwing from up to 120 feet on flat ground, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Andrew Saalfrank
(RP) 60-day IL — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Derek Law
(RP) out — Law (forearm) signed a minor-league contract with the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, Aaron Hughes of SI.com reports.
Out
T
Tommy Henry
(RP) out — The Diamondbacks re-signed Henry (elbow) to a minor-league contract Monday.
Out

Milwaukee Brewers

A
Angel Zerpa
(RP) 15-day IL — The Brewers placed Zerpa on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with left forearm tightness, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
15-Day-IL
Q
Quinn Priester
(SP) 15-day IL — Priester (wrist) is scheduled to throw about four innings and 60 pitches in the next start of his rehab assignment Friday, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Christian Yelich
(LF) 10-day IL — Yelich (groin) is ramping up his hitting and running work and still has an estimated return of mid-to-late May, Sophia Minnaert of Brewers.tv reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jared Koenig
(RP) 15-day IL — Koenig (elbow) is slated to resume a throwing program Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
A
Andrew Vaughn
(1B) 10-day IL — Vaughn (hand) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Nashville on Wednesday, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jackson Chourio
(CF) 10-day IL — Chourio (hand) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Nashville on Wednesday, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Gerson Garabito
(RP) day-to-day — Garabito will be out for four months after undergoing surgery to address a broken bone in his foot, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Rob Zastryzny
(RP) 60-day IL — Zastryzny (shoulder) was diagnosed with an intercostal strain and will be sidelined until at least late April, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Akil Baddoo
(LF) 60-day IL — The Brewers placed Baddoo (quadriceps) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
J.B. Bukauskas
(RP) day-to-day — Bukauskas will undergo surgery on his injured right lat and be sidelined for 9-to-10 months, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (350)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Zac Gallen Day-To-Day
Gabriel Moreno 10-Day-IL
Angel Zerpa 15-Day-IL
Quinn Priester 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

Get Daily Picks

AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers

+7.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Arizona Diamondbacks 56% Lean
"Dbacks +2.2: 56% Bayesian cover + Omega pick'em vs mkt -2.2, +7.5 EV despite whale home steam"
56% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 56%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +6.3%
Line Movement
Current Milwaukee Brewers -2.2 / Arizona Diamondbacks +2.2 | O/U 8.5 | ML Brewers -123 / Dbacks +107
Movement No significant line movement detected.
+EV on Arizona Diamondbacks spread cover; marginal on Brewers ML, huge on over but totals unprofitable historically.
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega spread at 0.0 vs market Brewers -2.2 creates 56.3% posterior cover prob for Dbacks +2.2 (+7.5 EV), confirmed by Pinnacle fair value 64.2% away and early CLV +2.2 pts. Total posterior 65.2% over 8.5 with MC 20.6 projected (EV +24.5) but totals WR 48.7% caps sizing. Whales extreme home ($400k vol) and sharp spread home contradict but Tier 1 quant favors away spread.
SHARP MONEY
14.3% sharp edge on Brewers spread side despite +EV divergence to away.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Arizona Diamondbacks 2.2
+7.5 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Milwaukee Brewers None
+0.8 EV 55%
TOTAL over 8.5
+24.5 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Milwaukee Brewers -123
  • Bayesian posterior 55.6% home win vs implied 55.2%, breakeven exceeded by 0.4pp
SPREAD PICK
○ 56%
Arizona Diamondbacks 2.2
  • Bayesian posterior 56.3% away cover vs market 50% at +2.2, Omega line pick'em (0.0) vs market -2.2
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 8.5
  • Bayesian posterior 65.2% over 8.5 vs market 50%, Omega/MC projected total 20.6-22.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Over 8.0 +15.2pp Bayesian edge (65.2% posterior) with OMEGA 22.5 total vs market; Arizona ML +4.5pp value at +100
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700

SIGNAL · LIVE